AAII Sentiment Survey - Weekly

[anitya]

Jan 20, 2022 15:31:25 GMT -6 anitya said:

Thanks. I wonder if the Bearish sentiment would not have exceeded 2 standard deviations if the survey was taken at the end of today's market close.

Interestingly, the CNN Fear & Greed index was at 60 (Greed) at yesterday market close and has moved to only 52 (neutral) now.  VIX is only at 25 which while high is not very high by pandemic era VIX measures and Skew is only at 135.  Seems like the market has some distance to travel before bottoming.

CNN F&G index is down to 32 (fear).  VIX has been at or above 30 for three days now.  Skew has not moved much in a week.   Distance to bottom has gotten smaller.  May be we see the bottom next week.

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/2/22

For the week ending on 2/2/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (43.9%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (26.5%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (29.9%; below average). Overall, the Survey improved from the very pessimistic reading last week. The Survey week followed the FOMC meeting & only day 1 (Thursday) was negative & all other days were positive (as if on cue to the very pessimistic Survey last week, but more later). In the news, the Russia-Ukraine tensions remained; the media speculation was wild on 3-7 rate hikes in 2022 (the fed futures markets were projecting 5); the global central banks were diverging, with the US Fed & UK BOE on monetary tightening course, the European ECB on hold & the Chinese PBOC on an easing course. On day 5 (Wednesday) of the Survey week, several earnings reports disappointed & the related stocks were crushed causing sharp declines in the overnight stock futures, but any subsequent market follow through & reaction by the Sentiment Survey is for the next week.

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

12-30-21 37.66% 31.80% 30.54%

01-06-22 32.76% 33.91% 33.33%

01-13-22 24.91% 36.80% 38.29%

01-20-22 20.96% 32.31% 46.72%

01-27-22 23.14% 23.92% 52.94%

02-02-22  26.5%  29.9%  43.9%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.97% 31.45% 30.58%

STD        10.02% 08.34% 09.50%

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/9/22

For the week ending on 2/9/22, a big change - neutral became the top sentiment (40.2%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (24.4%; low); bearish became the middle sentiment (35.5%; above average). Both the Sentiment & the market have made remarkable recovery in 2 weeks - nothing contrary here. The same domestic & geopolitical worries that were there 2+ weeks ago are still there but the market decided to party. This may be because there is lot of cash on the sideline; the US has issues but others have those too & may be worse off; investors decided that things were not getting worse; nobody really knows. If you had concerns about your portfolio 2+ weeks ago, this may be a good time to make some minor adjustments.

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

01-06-22 32.76% 33.91% 33.33%

01-13-22 24.91% 36.80% 38.29%

01-20-22 20.96% 32.31% 46.72%

01-27-22 23.14% 23.92% 52.94%

02-03-22 26.49% 29.85% 43.66%

02-09-22  24.4%  40.2%  35.5%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.97% 31.44% 30.59%

STD        10.02% 08.34% 09.51%

[anitya]

When was the last time Neutral went above 40?

With a 7.5% US Inflation print, US Treasuries shot up, with 10 yr crossing the psychologically important 2% in the pre-market action but the Gilts and Bunds did not express in sympathy.  2 yr Bunds rates moved lower and Bunds had higher 2-10 yr spreads than the US Treasuries.  2 Yr Treasuries moved up 12+ bps.  Will have to see where rates end up at today’s market close.

US jobless claims last week fall more than expected.  Claims decrease third week in a row.

[Admin/YBB]

Neutral sentiment was above 40 on 1/2/20. It was 40-rounded on 7/29/21 and 12/9/21. Avg + SD for Neutral is 39.78, so it is high now.

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/16/22

For the week ending on 2/16/22, a flip-flop: bearish became the top sentiment (43.2%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.2%; very low); neutral became the middle sentiment (37.6%; above average). The overall Sentiment is now bearish, similar to how it was in mid/late-January. News affecting the Sentiment and the markets include Russia-Ukraine; media speculation on Fed actions; harsh market response to earnings misses (this Q4 earnings season is almost over); the FDA delay in approving vaccines for kids under 5 that may impact workers with childcare issues.


Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

01-13-22 24.91% 36.80% 38.29%

01-20-22 20.96% 32.31% 46.72%

01-27-22 23.14% 23.92% 52.94%

02-03-22 26.49% 29.85% 43.66%

02-10-22 24.36% 40.17% 35.47%

02-16-22 19.2%  37.6%  43.2%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.96% 31.45% 30.59%

STD        10.02% 08.34% 09.50%


Edit/Add from AAII Evening Email: ".....Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.1 percentage points to 19.2%, well below the historical average of 38.0%. Optimism was last lower on May 25, 2016 (17.8%). Bullish sentiment is unusually low for the sixth consecutive week and below its historical average for the 13th consecutive week.....Inflation, interest rates, the coronavirus pandemic and politics are all influencing individual investors’ outlook for stocks. Other factors include the economy and corporate earnings. The ongoing volatility in the stock market is likely also playing a role....."

[anitya]

Wow. I know we do not ascribe as much predictive power to below average Bullish sentiment but still optimism was last lower on May 25, 2016 (17.8%)? Surprised to learn surveyed members were not this less bullish during Feb-March 2020.

Feb 17 Vix at 27, CNN F&G index at 37, skew at 131, and high yield MUNI with positive NAV changes across the board do not paint as dour a picture as the AAII survey would suggest.

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/23/22

For the week ending on 2/23/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (53.7%; very high; the highest since 4/11/13 when it was 54.5%) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (22.9%; low); bullish became the middle sentiment (23.4%; low). So, the neutral/fence-sitters turned bearish in large numbers. Bull-bear spread (-30.3%) was also the worse only in 2013. In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), the Russia-Ukraine situation went from bad to the worst possible. Russia declared parts of Ukraine "independent" & sent military "peacekeepers" on Monday, & then the war erupted on Wednesday night (Central time). Besides a great human tragedy in the region, this geopolitical crisis will cause further runups in oil and grain prices (a lot of it may have already occurred in the futures markets). This is in addition to the high current inflation & the coming Fed tightening actions (QE-taper ongoing, rate hikes to start in March, balance sheet reduction from mid/late-2022). The debate whether the Fed should be "aggressive" or "moderate" with monetary tightening may have been resolved in the favor of "moderate" in view of the new developments this week.


Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

01-20-22 20.96% 32.31% 46.72%

01-27-22 23.14% 23.92% 52.94%

02-03-22 26.49% 29.85% 43.66%

02-10-22 24.36% 40.17% 35.47%

02-17-22 19.25% 37.56% 43.19%

02-23-22 23.4%  22.9%  53.7%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.95% 31.45% 30.60%

STD        10.03% 08.34% 09.51%


Edit/Add: My commentary in the morning anticipated some information received in the AAII evening email.

".....Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 10.5 percentage points to 53.7%. This is bearish sentiment’s 14th consecutive week above the historical average of 30.5%. Pessimism was last higher on April 11, 2013 (54.5%).....The bull-bear spread (bullish sentiment minus bearish sentiment) remains unusually low at –30.3%. It was last lower on April 11, 2013 (–35.2%).....Historically, the S&P 500 index has gone on to realize above-average and above-median returns during the six- and 12-month periods following unusually low readings for bullish sentiment and for the bull-bear spread. Unusually high bearish sentiment readings historically have been followed by above-average and above-median six-month returns in the S&P 500.....Inflation, interest rates, the coronavirus pandemic and politics are all influencing individual investors’ outlook for stocks. Other factors include the economy and corporate earnings. The ongoing volatility in the stock market is likely also playing a role....."

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/2/22

For the week ending on 3/2/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (41.4%; high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (28.2%; below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (30.4%; below average). So, the overall sentiment improved from the very bearish reading last week. The Survey period of Thursday - Wednesday included the start of the war between Russia & Ukraine; the human tragedy & toll, & economic costs (global) will grow longer the lopsided battle continues. Other investor worries included high inflation, monetary tightening by the Fed (triple-actions; the Fed Chair Powell's testimony before the Congressional committees on Wednesday & Thursday this week) & supply-chain disruptions that may become worse.

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

01-27-22 23.14% 23.92% 52.94%

02-03-22 26.49% 29.85% 43.66%

02-10-22 24.36% 40.17% 35.47%

02-17-22 19.25% 37.56% 43.19%

02-24-22 23.39% 22.94% 53.67%

03-02-22 30.4% 28.2%  41.4%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.94% 31.45% 30.61%

STD        10.03% 08.34% 09.52%

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/9/22

For the week ending on 3/9/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (45.8%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (24.4%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (30.2%; below average). The overall Sentiment remained bearish. In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), the disastrous Russian-Ukraine war dragged on (there have been multiple failed talks & even those for evacuation corridors for civilians have been contentious; almost 5% of Ukraine population has become refugee). Stocks, bonds & commodities remained very volatile & major market averages were down in 4 of the 5 Survey days; the inflation readings remained very high (& that without food, energy & housing); the long-awaited March FOMC meeting is next week (25 bps rate hike is expected but watch for signals for more rate hikes & Fed balance sheet reduction).

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

02-03-22 26.49% 29.85% 43.66%

02-10-22 24.36% 40.17% 35.47%

02-17-22 19.25% 37.56% 43.19%

02-24-22 23.39% 22.94% 53.67%

03-03-22 30.39% 28.18% 41.44%

03-09-22  24.4% 30.2%  45.8%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.94% 31.45% 30.62%

STD        10.03% 08.33% 09.52%

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/16/22

For the week ending on 3/16/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (49.8%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (22.5%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (27.8%; below average). The overall Sentiment became more bearish. In the news filled Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), the disastrous & grinding Russia-Ukraine war dragged on for the 3rd week although there were some indications of progress in talks; the Fed started the 2nd leg of its triple-action plan by raising the fed fund rate by 25 bps or 0.25% (1st - the QE-Taper ended, 2nd - the rate hikes started, 3rd - the Fed balance sheet reduction to come soon); there was also news that some issues related to the US-listings of Chinese stocks/ADRs (using the complicated VIE mechanism) may be resolved (& Asian & EM stocks had astounding jumps); the general stock market action was a decline early & a strong rebound later, and huge declines (reversals?) in commodities after huge run ups in the previous week (commodities are very volatile).


Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish
  
02-10-22 24.36% 40.17% 35.47%

02-17-22 19.25% 37.56% 43.19%

02-24-22 23.39% 22.94% 53.67%

03-03-22 30.39% 28.18% 41.44%

03-10-22 24.00% 30.22% 45.78%

03-16-22  22.5%  27.8%  49.8%


Observations over life of survey

Avg          37.93% 31.45% 30.63%

STD         10.03% 08.33% 09.52%

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/23/22

For the week ending on 3/23/22, there was a significant improvement in the Survey but bearish remained the top sentiment (35.4%; above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (31.7%; average); bullish became the middle sentiment (32.8; below average). With all sentiments in 30s, ordering flip-flops are expected. Russia-Ukraine WAR has entered the 4th week & it has reached a stalemate stage on the ground & in negotiations but dislocations, injuries, deaths & property/facility destructions continue. There are hastily arranged extraordinary meetings of the NATO, G-7 & EU on Thursday (today). The developments may negatively affect the status of DOLLAR as the global reserve currency, & some currencies- & commodities- weighted basket may evolve in the near future. The FED has been talking VERY aggressively & that has significantly increased the rate hike expectations but the Fed may not follow through (that may be a new strategy). The stock market action was positive during the Survey week (Thursday - Wednesday).


Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

02-17-22 19.25% 37.56% 43.19%

02-24-22 23.39% 22.94% 53.67%

03-03-22 30.39% 28.18% 41.44%

03-10-22 24.00% 30.22% 45.78%

03-17-22 22.47% 27.75% 49.78%

03-23-22 32.8%  31.7%  35.4%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.92% 31.44% 30.64%

STD        10.03% 08.33% 09.53%

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/30/22

For the week ending on 3/30/22, the Sentiment Survey continued to improve: Neutral became the top sentiment (40.6%; high) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (27.5%; below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (31.9%; below average). After 5 weeks, the Russia-Ukraine war is at a stalemate on the ground, there is little progress in talks & Russia is redeploying its troops to focus in fewer areas including Donbas. The yield-curve has flattened considerably & has a small bulge in the middle; all this from very aggressive talk by the Fed. Stocks continued to move up while bonds were mixed (taxable flat, HY up, munis down). The US may announce a steady release of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPE) to limit oil price increases; the OPEC/OPEC+ is meeting today (Thursday) but is not expected to announce any major changes (Russia is part of the OPEC+).


Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

02-24-22 23.39% 22.94% 53.67%

03-03-22 30.39% 28.18% 41.44%

03-10-22 24.00% 30.22% 45.78%

03-17-22 22.47% 27.75% 49.78%

03-24-22 32.80% 31.75% 35.45%

03-30-22 31.9%  40.6%  27.5%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.92% 31.44% 30.64%

STD        10.03% 08.33% 09.53%


Edit/Add: OPEC/OPEC+ Maintain Course; US to Release Oil Daily from SPR
www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/oil-opec-meets-as-us-considers-massive-release-of-oil-reserves.html

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/6/22

For the week ending on 4/6/22, the overall Survey turned negative: Bearish became the top sentiment (41.4%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (24.7%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (33.9%; above average). For the Survey week, stocks & bonds were down; oil was down on SPR releases & slowdown from Covid spreading in China. The aggressive Fed talk on rate hikes (next, 50 bps?) & balance sheet reductions (starting at -$95 billion/month soon? from FOMC Minutes) continued & that have had affect on the markets (more on bonds than stocks so far). There is no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war (6+ weeks). Geopolitical uncertainties are also rising in Europe, Middle East, Asia.

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

03-03-22 30.39% 28.18% 41.44%

03-10-22 24.00% 30.22% 45.78%

03-17-22 22.47% 27.75% 49.78%

03-24-22 32.80% 31.75% 35.45%

03-31-22 31.88% 40.58% 27.54%

04-06-22 24.7%  33.9%  41.4%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.91% 31.45% 30.64%

STD        10.03% 08.33% 09.53%

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/13/22

For the week ending on 4/13/22, the Survey turned VERY negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (48.4%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (15.8%; VERY low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (35.7%; above average). Russia-Ukraine war lingered on with no visible progress in negotiations or on the ground. Inflation data were very high but may be peaking (hope?); PPI > CPI meant that company profit margins may be under pressure as companies are unable to pass on their cost increases on to their customers. In the Survey week, growth stocks were down, cyclicals up, bonds down, oil up, gold up.


Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

03-10-22 24.00% 30.22% 45.78%

03-17-22 22.47% 27.75% 49.78%

03-24-22 32.80% 31.75% 35.45%

03-31-22 31.88% 40.58% 27.54%

04-07-22 24.71% 33.91% 41.38%

04-13-2   15.8%  35.7%  48.4%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.91% 31.45% 30.64%

STD        10.03% 08.33% 09.53%


Notes:
That is 30-yr low for bullish reading (lowest since 9/4/1992).

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/20/22

For the week ending on 4/20/22, the Survey improved a bit but remained deeply negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (43.9%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (18.9%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (37.3%; above average). It is now 8+ weeks for the Russia-Ukraine war where the focus has shifted on the East (Donbas) and South. Investor concerns were inflation, aggressive Fed, earnings, war. In the Survey week, stocks were mixed (growth down, value/cyclicals up), bonds down, oil down, gold down.

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

03-17-22 22.47% 27.75% 49.78%

03-24-22 32.80% 31.75% 35.45%

03-31-22 31.88% 40.58% 27.54%

04-07-22 24.71% 33.91% 41.38%

04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42%

04-20-22 18.9%  37.3%  43.9%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.89% 31.45% 30.65%

STD        10.04% 08.32% 09.53%

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/27/22

For the week ending on 4/27/22, the Survey was very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (59.4%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (16.4%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (24.2%; low). Investor concerns remained Russia-Ukraine war (now 9+ weeks with escalation of verbal threats), high market volatility (VIX, VXN), earnings, inflation, the Fed (FOMC next week). In the Survey week, stocks were down, bonds were up a bit, oil down, gold down, dollar up.

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

03-24-22 32.80% 31.75% 35.45%

03-31-22 31.88% 40.58% 27.54%

04-07-22 24.71% 33.91% 41.38%

04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42%

04-21-22 18.87% 37.26% 43.87%

04-27-22 16.4%  24.2%  59.4%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.88% 31.46% 30.66%

STD        10.05% 08.32% 09.54%


Now accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at" yogibearbull), Twitter ("at" YBB_Finance).


Edit/Add: Q1 GDP growth was NEGATIVE. Either the market hasn't had time to grasp that, or it is celebrating.

Now Q2 GDP growth will likely be negative too.

That is spelled RECESSION.

www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/4/22

For the week ending on 5/4/22, the Survey remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (52.9%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (20.3%; very low); bullish became the middle sentiment (26.9%; low from very low last week). Investor concerns remained high inflation; supply-chain disruptions; high market volatility (VIX, VXN); the Fed (the FOMC announced 50-bps hike with at least 2 more 50-bps hikes to follow but any 75-bps hikes were ruled out; balance sheet reduction plan of $47.5-95.0 billion/mo); Russia-Ukraine war (now 10+ weeks); Covid-19 spread & lockdowns in China. In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up (there was a huge Fed-"relief" rally on Wednesday), bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar down. 
#AAII, #Sentiment, #Markets

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bullish

03-31-22 31.88% 40.58% 27.54%

04-07-22 24.71% 33.91% 41.38%

04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42%

04-21-22 18.87% 37.26% 43.87%

04-28-22 16.44% 24.20% 59.36%

05-04-22  26.9%  20.3%  52.9%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.87% 31.45% 30.68%

STD        10.06% 08.32% 09.56%


Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/11/22

For the week ending on 5/11/22, Sentiment remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (49.0%; very high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (24.3%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (26.6%; below average). Investor concerns included high inflation; high market volatility (VIX, VXN); supply-chain disruptions; crypto-crash (there is correlation between cryptos and speculative stocks); Russia-Ukraine war (now 11+ weeks). In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), almost everything was down (stocks, bonds, oil, gold) with the exception of dollar. #AAII, #Sentiment, #Markets

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

04-07-22 24.71% 33.91% 41.38%

04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42%

04-21-22 18.87% 37.26% 43.87%

04-28-22 16.44% 24.20% 59.36%

05-05-22 26.87% 20.26% 52.86%

05-11-22 24.3%  26.6%  49.0%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.86% 31.45% 30.69%

STD        10.06% 08.32% 09.57%


Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).

[Admin/YBB]

AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/18/22

For the week ending on 5/18/22, the Survey remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (50.4%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (23.6%; low); bullish became the middle sentiment (26.0%, low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions (the two have become intertwined; retail was trashed this week); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (12+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), there were huge market movements but the result was that stocks were mixed, bonds down a bit, oil up, gold down, dollar flat. Note - A new Greed-Fear display on the AAII Sentiment Survey page that is based simply on Bull-Bear Spread seems to have colors & labels flipped; the AAII has been informed. #AAII, #Sentiment, #Markets

Date        Bullish   Neutral  Bearish

04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42%

04-21-22 18.87% 37.26% 43.87%

04-28-22 16.44% 24.20% 59.36%

05-05-22 26.87% 20.26% 52.86%

05-12-22 24.32% 26.64% 49.03%

05-18-22 26.0%  23.6%  50.4%


Observations over life of survey

Avg         37.86% 31.44% 30.70%

STD        10.06% 08.32% 09.58%

Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).