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Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 16, 2021 10:45:42 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/14/21
For the week ending on 7/14.21, neutral became the top sentiment (replacing the bullish sentiment) and bearish remained the bottom sentiment. So, the flip-flop over the last 2 weeks seems to have been resolved as a declining trend (?) in the bullish sentiment. All reading are well within +/- 1SD.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
06-10-21 40.23% 39.10% 20.68%
06-17-21 41.12% 32.71% 26.17%
06-24-21 40.42% 36.25% 23.33%
07-01-21 48.65% 29.19% 22.16%
07-08-21 40.20% 35.29% 24.51%
07-14-21 36.2% 37.0% 26.8%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.04% 31.43% 30.53%
STD 10.04% 08.39% 09.54%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 22, 2021 5:50:17 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/21/21
For the week ending on 7/21/21, neutral remained the top sentiment (38.7%) and bullish and bearish sentiments were tied (30.6%). The bullish sentiment dropped significantly. All 3 sentiments were in 30s.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
06-17-21 41.12% 32.71% 26.17%
06-24-21 40.42% 36.25% 23.33%
07-01-21 48.65% 29.19% 22.16%
07-08-21 40.20% 35.29% 24.51%
07-15-21 36.17% 37.02% 26.81%
07-21-21 30.6% 38.7% 30.6%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.04% 31.43% 30.53%
STD 10.04% 08.39% 09.53%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 29, 2021 5:38:31 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/28/21 For the week ending on 7/28/21, neutral remained the top sentiment (39.7%) and bearish became the bottom sentiment (24.1%; low reading). Bullish sentiment rose but remained in the middle (36.2%). stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21AAIIBULL-%21AAIIBEAR&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34258481463Date Bullish Neutral Bearish 06-24-21 40.42% 36.25% 23.33% 07-01-21 48.65% 29.19% 22.16% 07-08-21 40.20% 35.29% 24.51% 07-15-21 36.17% 37.02% 26.81% 07-22-21 30.65% 38.71% 30.65% 07-28-21 36.2% 39.7% 24.1%
Observations over life of survey Avg 38.04% 31.43% 30.53% STD 10.04% 08.38% 09.53%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Aug 5, 2021 5:29:36 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/4/21
For the week ending on 8/4/21, bullish became the top sentiment (36.1%) and bearish remained the bottom sentiment (31.7%). All 3 sentiments were in 30s, so the ordering flip-flops among them are expected.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
07-01-21 48.65% 29.19% 22.16%
07-08-21 40.20% 35.29% 24.51%
07-15-21 36.17% 37.02% 26.81%
07-22-21 30.65% 38.71% 30.65%
07-29-21 36.16% 39.73% 24.11%
08-04-21 36.1% 32.2% 31.7%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.04% 31.44% 30.53%
STD 10.03% 08.38% 09.53%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Aug 12, 2021 5:47:00 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/11/21
For the week ending on 8/11/21, bullish remained the top sentiment (37.0%) and neutral and bearish sentiments became tied (31.5%). All 3 sentiments were in 30s and close to their average values.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
07-08-21 40.20% 35.29% 24.51%
07-15-21 36.17% 37.02% 26.81%
07-22-21 30.65% 38.71% 30.65%
07-29-21 36.16% 39.73% 24.11%
08-05-21 36.07% 32.24% 31.69%
08-11-21 37.0% 31.5% 31.5%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.04% 31.44% 30.53%
STD 10.03% 08.38% 09.53%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Aug 19, 2021 5:35:46 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/18/21
For the week ending on 8/18/21, bearish became the top sentiment (35.1%; above average) and neutral became the bottom sentiment (31.7%; below average). All three were in 30s so ordering flip-flops are expected.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
07-15-21 36.17% 37.02% 26.81%
07-22-21 30.65% 38.71% 30.65%
07-29-21 36.16% 39.73% 24.11%
08-05-21 36.07% 32.24% 31.69%
08-12-21 36.97% 31.51% 31.51%
08-18-21 33.2% 31.7% 35.1%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.04% 31.44% 30.53%
STD 10.03% 08.38% 09.52%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Aug 26, 2021 6:12:15 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/25/21
For the week ending on 8/25/21, a flip-flop. Bullish became the top sentiment (39.6%) and neutral remained the bottom sentiment (27.5%; below average).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
07-22-21 30.65% 38.71% 30.65%
07-29-21 36.16% 39.73% 24.11%
08-05-21 36.07% 32.24% 31.69%
08-12-21 36.97% 31.51% 31.51%
08-19-21 33.17% 31.73% 35.10%
08-25-21 39.6% 27.5% 33.0%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.03% 31.44% 30.53%
STD 10.03% 08.38% 09.52%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 2, 2021 5:41:31 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/1/21
For the week ending on 9/1/21, bullish remained the top sentiment (43.4%; above average) and neutral remained the bottom sentiment (23.2%; low reading, well below average); bearish was in the middle (33.3%; above average). Survey is net bullish but not at an extreme level yet. Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. September is typically a difficult month for stocks (poor seasonality May-October).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
07-29-21 36.16% 39.73% 24.11%
08-05-21 36.07% 32.24% 31.69%
08-12-21 36.97% 31.51% 31.51%
08-19-21 33.17% 31.73% 35.10%
08-26-21 39.56% 27.47% 32.97%
09-01-21 43.4% 23.2% 33.3%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.03% 31.44% 30.53%
STD 10.02% 08.38% 09.52%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 9, 2021 6:49:36 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/8/21
For the week ending on 9/8/21, there were small shifts. Bullish remained the top sentiment (38.9%, near average) but bearish became the bottom sentiment (27.2%, below average); neutral was in the middle (33.9%, above average). Overall tone was bullish as neutral/undecided are often the bulls waiting on the sidelines.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
08-05-21 36.07% 32.24% 31.69%
08-12-21 36.97% 31.51% 31.51%
08-19-21 33.17% 31.73% 35.10%
08-26-21 39.56% 27.47% 32.97%
09-02-21 43.43% 23.23% 33.33% 09-08-21 38.9% 33.9% 27.2%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.04% 31.43% 30.53%
STD 10.02% 08.38% 09.52%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 16, 2021 5:39:22 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/15/21 In a big flip this week, bearish sentiment became the top sentiment (39.3%) and bullish became the bottom sentiment (22.4%), just the opposite of the last week; neutral remained in the middle (38.3%). The overall tone was bearish (vs bullish last week). Remember that sentiment is a contrarian indicator. Date Bullish Neutral Bearish 08-12-21 36.97% 31.51% 31.51% 08-19-21 33.17% 31.73% 35.10% 08-26-21 39.56% 27.47% 32.97% 09-02-21 43.43% 23.23% 33.33% 09-09-21 38.89% 33.89% 27.22% 09-15-21 22.4% 38.3% 39.3%Observations over life of survey Avg 38.04% 31.43% 30.53% STD 10.02% 08.37% 09.51% Edit/Add: From weekend Barron's, www.barrons.com/articles/biden-likely-to-renominate-powell-as-fed-chief-say-online-betting-markets-51631921771?mod=past_editions"Bearish Sentiment: Bullish Sign The McClellan Market Report McClellan Financial Publications .... Some analysts like to track the spread between bulls and bears in the weekly AAII [American Association of Individual Investors] Investor Sentiment Survey, and I watch that, too. But I also find that looking at each of them separately can be useful. [The latest reading] is the highest reading for the bearish percentage since October 2020, when we were still just recovering from the Covid crash and investors were still terribly pessimistic. This is a bottoming sort of indication for stock prices...."
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Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 23, 2021 6:11:11 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment, 9/22/21
For the week ending on 9/22/22, bearish sentiment remained the top sentiment (39.2%) and bullish sentiment remained the bottom sentiment (29.9%) but was nearly tied with the neutral sentiment (30.9%). The DC agenda has lots of things to be done soon - budget, debt-ceiling (path unclear yet), infrastructure bill (via reconciliation). The Fed promised to remain easy yesterday (interest rate liftoff in late-2022 or 2023 but the QE-taper may be from November 2021 - June 2022).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
08-19-21 33.17% 31.73% 35.10%
08-26-21 39.56% 27.47% 32.97%
09-02-21 43.43% 23.23% 33.33%
09-09-21 38.89% 33.89% 27.22%
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-22-21 29.9 30.9% 39.2%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.03% 31.44% 30.53%
STD 10.02% 08.37% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 30, 2021 6:11:54 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/29/21
For the week ending on 9/29/21, bearish remained the top sentiment (40.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (28.1%; below average); neutral remained in the middle (31.1%). Note the contrarian nature of the Sentiment Survey. The DC issues mentioned last week remain unresolved but closer to their deadlines - the government shutdown may be avoided with a short budget continuation resolution TODAY; debt-ceiling now has October 18 deadline; infrastructure via budget reconciliation may be in October too. Failure in any of these may be catastrophic.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
08-26-21 39.56% 27.47% 32.97%
09-02-21 43.43% 23.23% 33.33%
09-09-21 38.89% 33.89% 27.22%
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-23-21 29.90% 30.93% 39.18%
09-29-21 28.1% 31.1% 40.7%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.44% 30.54%
STD 10.02% 08.37% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 7, 2021 7:11:52 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/6/21
For the week ending on 10/6/21, neutral became the top sentiment (37.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (25.5%; below average); bearish was in the middle (36.8%; above average). News of a potential compromise on debt-ceiling yesterday may have been too late to affect the sentiment survey (compromise may be a short-term extension to December & a longer-term fix as part of budget-reconciliation or in another way).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
09-02-21 43.43% 23.23% 33.33%
09-09-21 38.89% 33.89% 27.22%
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-23-21 29.90% 30.93% 39.18%
09-30-21 28.14% 31.14% 40.72%
10-06-21 25.5% 37.7% 36.8%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.02% 08.37% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 14, 2021 5:48:14 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/13/21
For the week ending on 10/13/21, bullish became the top sentiment (37.9%, near average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (30.3%, near average); bearish became the middle sentiment (31.8%, near average). This was a major change from the recent weeks in that the bullish sentiment went from the bottom to the top, so a new trend? With all of the sentiments in 30s, their ordering flip-flops are expected.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
09-09-21 38.89% 33.89% 27.22%
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-23-21 29.90% 30.93% 39.18%
09-30-21 28.14% 31.14% 40.72%
10-07-21 25.47% 37.74% 36.79%
10-13-21 37.9% 30.3% 31.8%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.01% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.02% 08.37% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 21, 2021 6:16:36 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/20/21
For the week ending on 10/20/21, the Sentiment improved further. Bullish remained the top sentiment (46.9%; well above average now), neutral remained the bottom sentiment (25.4%; well below average); bearish remained in the middle (27.8%; slightly below average). This sudden improvement in sentiment that started last week is surprising for October. There has been no big news except that there is a new futures-based crypto-ETF BITO, cryptos & stocks are rallying (but bonds are hurt by rising bond yields), & more Covid-19 boosters are being approved (the FDA has already acted on Moderna & J&J; the CDC should act today). The budget & debt-ceiling problems have been deferred only to early-December, not gone; the fight in the DC over the size of infrastructure stimulus continues.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-23-21 29.90% 30.93% 39.18%
09-30-21 28.14% 31.14% 40.72%
10-07-21 25.47% 37.74% 36.79%
10-14-21 37.91% 30.33% 31.75%
10-20-21 46.9% 25.4% 27.8%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.01% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.02% 08.36% 09.51%
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