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Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 23, 2021 6:11:11 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment, 9/22/21
For the week ending on 9/22/22, bearish sentiment remained the top sentiment (39.2%) and bullish sentiment remained the bottom sentiment (29.9%) but was nearly tied with the neutral sentiment (30.9%). The DC agenda has lots of things to be done soon - budget, debt-ceiling (path unclear yet), infrastructure bill (via reconciliation). The Fed promised to remain easy yesterday (interest rate liftoff in late-2022 or 2023 but the QE-taper may be from November 2021 - June 2022).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
08-19-21 33.17% 31.73% 35.10%
08-26-21 39.56% 27.47% 32.97%
09-02-21 43.43% 23.23% 33.33%
09-09-21 38.89% 33.89% 27.22%
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-22-21 29.9 30.9% 39.2%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.03% 31.44% 30.53%
STD 10.02% 08.37% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 30, 2021 6:11:54 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/29/21
For the week ending on 9/29/21, bearish remained the top sentiment (40.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (28.1%; below average); neutral remained in the middle (31.1%). Note the contrarian nature of the Sentiment Survey. The DC issues mentioned last week remain unresolved but closer to their deadlines - the government shutdown may be avoided with a short budget continuation resolution TODAY; debt-ceiling now has October 18 deadline; infrastructure via budget reconciliation may be in October too. Failure in any of these may be catastrophic.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
08-26-21 39.56% 27.47% 32.97%
09-02-21 43.43% 23.23% 33.33%
09-09-21 38.89% 33.89% 27.22%
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-23-21 29.90% 30.93% 39.18%
09-29-21 28.1% 31.1% 40.7%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.44% 30.54%
STD 10.02% 08.37% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 7, 2021 7:11:52 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/6/21
For the week ending on 10/6/21, neutral became the top sentiment (37.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (25.5%; below average); bearish was in the middle (36.8%; above average). News of a potential compromise on debt-ceiling yesterday may have been too late to affect the sentiment survey (compromise may be a short-term extension to December & a longer-term fix as part of budget-reconciliation or in another way).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
09-02-21 43.43% 23.23% 33.33%
09-09-21 38.89% 33.89% 27.22%
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-23-21 29.90% 30.93% 39.18%
09-30-21 28.14% 31.14% 40.72%
10-06-21 25.5% 37.7% 36.8%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.02% 08.37% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 14, 2021 5:48:14 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/13/21
For the week ending on 10/13/21, bullish became the top sentiment (37.9%, near average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (30.3%, near average); bearish became the middle sentiment (31.8%, near average). This was a major change from the recent weeks in that the bullish sentiment went from the bottom to the top, so a new trend? With all of the sentiments in 30s, their ordering flip-flops are expected.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
09-09-21 38.89% 33.89% 27.22%
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-23-21 29.90% 30.93% 39.18%
09-30-21 28.14% 31.14% 40.72%
10-07-21 25.47% 37.74% 36.79%
10-13-21 37.9% 30.3% 31.8%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.01% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.02% 08.37% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 21, 2021 6:16:36 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/20/21
For the week ending on 10/20/21, the Sentiment improved further. Bullish remained the top sentiment (46.9%; well above average now), neutral remained the bottom sentiment (25.4%; well below average); bearish remained in the middle (27.8%; slightly below average). This sudden improvement in sentiment that started last week is surprising for October. There has been no big news except that there is a new futures-based crypto-ETF BITO, cryptos & stocks are rallying (but bonds are hurt by rising bond yields), & more Covid-19 boosters are being approved (the FDA has already acted on Moderna & J&J; the CDC should act today). The budget & debt-ceiling problems have been deferred only to early-December, not gone; the fight in the DC over the size of infrastructure stimulus continues.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
09-16-21 22.45% 38.27% 39.29%
09-23-21 29.90% 30.93% 39.18%
09-30-21 28.14% 31.14% 40.72%
10-07-21 25.47% 37.74% 36.79%
10-14-21 37.91% 30.33% 31.75%
10-20-21 46.9% 25.4% 27.8%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.01% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.02% 08.36% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 28, 2021 6:17:36 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/27/21
For the week ending on 10/27/21, bullish remained the top sentiment (39.8%; above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (29.4%; below average); neutral became middle sentiment (30.7%; below average). This September had a minor pullback & October has been good (so far, with only 2 trading days remaining) - typically, these 2 months are noted for adverse market events. Seasonality will be changing from poor (May 1-October 31) to good (November 1-April 30); seasonality is a weak market factor.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
09-23-21 29.90% 30.93% 39.18%
09-30-21 28.14% 31.14% 40.72%
10-07-21 25.47% 37.74% 36.79%
10-14-21 37.91% 30.33% 31.75%
10-21-21 46.89% 25.36% 27.75%
10-27-21 39.8% 30.7% 29.4%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.02% 08.36% 09.51%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Nov 4, 2021 6:24:45 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/3/21
For the week ending on 11/3/21, bullish remained the top sentiment (41.5%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (26.0%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (32.5%; near average). The FOMC announced the QE-taper schedule of -$15 billion/month that should end the current QE in 8 months, by June 2022, unless further adjustments are made. This was well-telegraphed ahead & was well-received by the markets (US & global).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
09-30-21 28.14% 31.14% 40.72%
10-07-21 25.47% 37.74% 36.79%
10-14-21 37.91% 30.33% 31.75%
10-21-21 46.89% 25.36% 27.75%
10-27-21 39.83% 30.74% 29.44%
11-03-21 41.5% 32.5% 26.0%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.02% 08.36% 09.50%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Nov 11, 2021 7:24:36 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/10/21
For the week ending on 11/10/21, bullish remained the top sentiment (48.0%; high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (24.0%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (28.0%; below average). The speculative interest in the market is very high now; an example was the EV-concept company Rivian/RIVN IPO yesterday that had the valuation higher than GM, Ford/F or Honda/HMC, but it has no commercial production or sales yet; may be it will be the next Tesla/TSLA, or not (the #2 spot in the EV space is fluid).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
10-07-21 25.47% 37.74% 36.79%
10-14-21 37.91% 30.33% 31.75%
10-21-21 46.89% 25.36% 27.75%
10-27-21 39.83% 30.74% 29.44%
11-04-21 41.50% 32.50% 26.00%
11-10-21 48.0% 28.0% 24.0%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.44% 30.54%
STD 10.01% 08.36% 09.50%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Nov 18, 2021 7:59:00 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/17/21
For the week ending on 11/17/21, there was a decrease in the bullish sentiment but it remained the top sentiment (38.8%; now average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (27.2%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.9%; above average). Early December deadlines loom for budget & debt-ceiling. The decision on Fed Chair (POWELL or BRAINARD?) has to be made soon with Powell's term expiring in February 2022. Electric-vehicles (EVs) remain a very speculative area (Rivian/RIVN, Lucid/LCID, etc).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
10-14-21 37.91% 30.33% 31.75%
10-21-21 46.89% 25.36% 27.75%
10-27-21 39.83% 30.74% 29.44%
11-04-21 41.50% 32.50% 26.00%
11-11-21 48.00% 28.00% 24.00%
11-17-21 38.8% 33.9% 27.2%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.43% 30.54%
STD 10.01% 08.36% 09.50%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Nov 25, 2021 7:50:55 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/24/21
For the week ending on 11/24/21, major changes: Bearish became the top sentiment (35.7%; above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (30.5%; below average); bullish became the middle sentiment (33.8%; below average). All 3 sentiments are in 30s now & flip-flops among them are expected. This turn in investor sentiment sentiment is unusual for the favorable seasonality period (November 1 - April 30) & the holiday season. Possible investor worries include growing Covid-19 problem in Europe that will eventually affect the US & Asia (as international travel has been relaxed recently), inflation & interest rates, directionless movements in growth & cyclical sectors, high volatility in several stocks that is masked by indexes, budget & debt-ceiling issues (on the other hand, the Fed Chair Powell was nominated for another term & potential contender Brainard was nominated as Fed Vice-Chair).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
10-21-21 46.89% 25.36% 27.75%
10-27-21 39.83% 30.74% 29.44%
11-04-21 41.50% 32.50% 26.00%
11-11-21 48.00% 28.00% 24.00%
11-18-21 38.84% 33.93% 27.23%
11-24-21 33.8% 30.5% 35.7%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.44% 30.54%
STD 10.01% 08.35% 09.50%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Dec 2, 2021 8:28:21 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/1/21
For the week ending on 12/1/21, the Survey turned more bearish: Bearish sentiment remained the top sentiment (42.4%; well above average) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (26.7%; well below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (31.0%; near average). Factors seem to be Covid-19 concerns with the new Omicron variant (the US has announced new travel restrictions for all inbound international travelers), pending budget & debt-ceiling issues, and jittery stock market (a daily tug of war between growth & cyclicals).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
10-27-21 39.83% 30.74% 29.44%
11-04-21 41.50% 32.50% 26.00%
11-11-21 48.00% 28.00% 24.00%
11-18-21 38.84% 33.93% 27.23%
11-24-21 33.8% 30.5% 35.7%
12-01-21 26.7% 31.0% 42.4%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.44% 30.54%
STD 10.01% 08.35% 09.50%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Dec 9, 2021 8:26:24 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/8/21
For the week ending on 12/8/21, neutral became the top sentiment (39.8%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (29.7%; below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (30.5%; average; almost same as the bullish sentiment). The improvement in sentiment from last week may be related to better news on Covid-19/Omicron (mild infections in fully vaccinated) & progress in DC on budget (done to mid-February), debt-ceiling (vote today?) & soft-infrastructure bill.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
11-04-21 41.50% 32.50% 26.00%
11-11-21 48.00% 28.00% 24.00%
11-18-21 38.84% 33.93% 27.23%
11-24-21 33.81% 30.48% 35.71%
12-02-21 26.67% 30.95% 42.38%
12-08-21 29.7% 39.8% 30.5%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.43% 30.55%
STD 10.01% 08.35% 09.50%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Dec 16, 2021 6:49:23 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/15/21
For the week ending on 12/15/21, bearish became the top sentiment (39.3%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (25.2%; below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (35.4%; above average). Issues in DC are getting resolved one by one - budget (to mid-February), debt-ceiling (to 2023); but the soft-stimulus (via reconciliation process) may be delayed to 2022. As expected, the Fed speeded up the pace of its QE-taper to windup the QE by the FOMC meeting on 3/16/22; the rate hikes can begin then or later, with 3 expected in 2022 & more in 2023. The markets reacted positively but it was too late to reflect on the weekly Sentiment Survey that covers the period from Thursday-Wednesday. On the other hand, inflation readings remain very high & worrisome (the Fed has dropped using the term transitory & the Fed Chair Powell said that the inflation we got was not the type we/he/Fed expected), & the Covid-19-Omicron concerns are growing. So far we know that the transmissibility of Omicron is high but it causes mild illnesses in fully vaccinated people; a booster shot may be all that is needed for now. The world will just have to learn to live with variants of Covid-19 & global vaccination efforts would be needed to control it.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
11-11-21 48.00% 28.00% 24.00%
11-18-21 38.84% 33.93% 27.23%
11-24-21 33.81% 30.48% 35.71%
12-02-21 26.67% 30.95% 42.38%
12-09-21 29.72% 39.76% 30.52%
12-15-21 25.2% 35.4% 39.3%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.01% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.01% 08.35% 09.50%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Dec 23, 2021 7:24:56 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/22/21
For the week ending on 12/22/21, neutral became the top sentiment (36.6%; above average) and bullish remained the bottom sentiment (29.6%; below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (33.9%; above average). As all 3 sentiments round to 30s, ordering flip-flops are expected. Investor concerns this week seemed to be the rapid spread of the new Covid-19-Omicron, delay or possible rejection of the soft-infrastructure stimulus (BBB) whose passage will require all 50 Democratic votes in the Senate plus a tie breaker vote from the VP, and high daily market volatility (a continuing tussle between growth and cyclicals).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
11-18-21 38.84% 33.93% 27.23%
11-24-21 33.81% 30.48% 35.71%
12-02-21 26.67% 30.95% 42.38%
12-09-21 29.72% 39.76% 30.52%
12-16-21 25.24% 35.44% 39.32%
12-22-21 29.6% 36.6% 33.9%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.00% 31.44% 30.55%
STD 10.01% 08.35% 09.50%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Dec 30, 2021 7:05:22 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/29/21
For the week ending on 12/29/21, bullish became the top sentiment (37.7%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (30.5%; average); neutral became the middle sentiment (31.8%; average). With all 3 sentiments in 30s, more flip-flops in ordering are expected. Sentiment has been improving over the last 2 weeks - Covid-19-Omicron is spreading rapidly but its effects seem milder; there is Santa/yearend rally in stocks (SP500 & DJIA closed at new highs on Wednesday) that may feed into the January effect (i.e., stocks under tax-loss selling in November/December bounce strongly in January & the effect is quite pronounced for small-caps).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
11-24-21 33.81% 30.48% 35.71%
12-02-21 26.67% 30.95% 42.38%
12-09-21 29.72% 39.76% 30.52%
12-16-21 25.24% 35.44% 39.32%
12-23-21 29.57% 36.56% 33.87%
12-29-21 37.7% 31.8% 30.5%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.00% 31.44% 30.56%
STD 10.01% 08.35% 09.49%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jan 6, 2022 6:51:37 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/5/22
For the week ending on 1/5/22, neutral became the top sentiment (33.9%; above average) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (32.8%; below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (33.3%; above average). All 3 sentiments remain in 30s, so flip-flops in their ordering will continue. There was a reversal in the recent overall improvement in the Sentiment Survey. Concerns seem to be rapidly spreading Covid-19-Omicron & alarmingly high new daily Covid-19 cases in the US. Economic data were strong. The FOMC Minutes showed that beyond an early end of QE in March & several rate hikes to follow (3 in 2022), the FOMC also discussed reduction in Fed balance sheet. That was unexpected & caused a mini selloff in the US stock market on Wednesday (note that the Survey period is Thursday-Wednesday).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
12-02-21 26.67% 30.95% 42.38%
12-09-21 29.72% 39.76% 30.52%
12-16-21 25.24% 35.44% 39.32%
12-23-21 29.57% 36.56% 33.87%
12-30-21 37.66% 31.80% 30.54%
01-05-22 32.8% 33.9% 33.3%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.00% 31.44% 30.56%
STD 10.01% 08.34% 09.49%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jan 13, 2022 8:28:42 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/12/22
For the week ending on 1/12/22, the Survey turned bearish overall - bearish became the top sentiment (38.3%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (24.9%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (36.8%; above average). The Survey period (Thursday-Wednesday) started with several days of down markets that rebounded later, a good setup for (caused by?) dip-buyers with lots of cash on the sidelines. Covid-19/Omicron new daily cases remained alarmingly high but illnesses were mild. The inflation readings (CPI) were the highest in 40 years in the week of nomination hearings for the Fed Chair POWELL (Tuesday) & Fed VC BRAINARD (Thursday), so there was lot of talk in the DC about doing something to control inflation that is beginning to hurt consumers. The Fed has already indicated its triple approach - end QE early by March, start raising rates (3-4 times in 2022, more in 2023), and also start reducing the $9 trillion Fed balance sheet.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
12-09-21 29.72% 39.76% 30.52%
12-16-21 25.24% 35.44% 39.32%
12-23-21 29.57% 36.56% 33.87%
12-30-21 37.66% 31.80% 30.54%
01-05-22 32.76% 33.91% 33.33%
01-12-22 24.9% 36.8% 38.3%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.00% 31.45% 30.56%
STD 10.00% 08.34% 09.49%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jan 20, 2022 6:40:23 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/19/22
For the week ending on 1/19/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (46.7%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (21.0%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (32.3%; above average). While the Survey is contrarian, this week the market action was negative (Nasdaq Comp was correction territory) & the Survey overall also turned more bearish. News has been mixed. Q4 earnings had a poor start with big banks & the fear is lower earnings with higher rates (& inflation), a bad combination. Soft stimulus (BBB) is stuck in DC & may have to be broken up to pass smaller pieces. Covid-19/Omicron spread continues. Russia-Ukraine issue is bubbling & it is unclear whether verbal threats of severe sanctions will be enough to contain Putin's ambitions. Many airlines are canceling flights due to an unexpected 5G issue (not Omicron, not weather) - the C-band (part of mid-band) just turned on can cause interference with plane instrumentations & some airlines don't want to take chances with the US flights; it is an issue to be settled among the FAA, FCC, airline industry & White House. Telecom commercial interests & public safety issues have to be balanced - how did things get this far without resolution?
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
12-16-21 25.24% 35.44% 39.32%
12-23-21 29.57% 36.56% 33.87%
12-30-21 37.66% 31.80% 30.54%
01-06-22 32.76% 33.91% 33.33%
01-13-22 24.91% 36.80% 38.29%
01-19-22 21.0% 32.3% 46.7%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 37.99% 31.45% 30.56%
STD 10.01% 08.34% 09.49%
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Post by anitya on Jan 20, 2022 15:31:25 GMT -6
Thanks. I wonder if the Bearish sentiment would not have exceeded 2 standard deviations if the survey was taken at the end of today's market close.
Interestingly, the CNN Fear & Greed index was at 60 (Greed) at yesterday market close and has moved to only 52 (neutral) now. VIX is only at 25 which while high is not very high by pandemic era VIX measures and Skew is only at 135. Seems like the market has some distance to travel before bottoming.
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jan 27, 2022 7:42:24 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/26/22
For the week ending on 1/26/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (52.9%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (23.1%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (23.9%; low). The overall Sentiment is very bearish now due to a large sentiment shift from fence-sitters (neutral) to bearish. Keep in mind that the sentiment indicators are contrarian. After the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the Fed affirmed its triple action plan - the QE taper (ongoing & to end in early-March), rate hikes (to start soon/March) & the Fed balance sheet reduction (to start mid-year after some rate hikes). The Fed Chair Powell mentioned that it will remain flexible but noted several risks - inflation, economy, Covid-19/Omicron, supply-chain disruptions, Europe. The stock market has been very volatile this week; VIX around 30 means daily SP500 moves of about +/- 1.6% (high).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
12-23-21 29.57% 36.56% 33.87%
12-30-21 37.66% 31.80% 30.54%
01-06-22 32.76% 33.91% 33.33%
01-13-22 24.91% 36.80% 38.29%
01-20-22 20.96% 32.31% 46.72%
01-26-22 23.1% 23.9% 52.9%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 37.98% 31.45% 30.57%
STD 10.01% 08.34% 09.49%
Additional notes from the evening email from AAII: "Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 6.2 percentage points to 52.9%, staying above the historical average of 30.5% for the 10th consecutive week. It has also well surpassed one standard deviation above the historical average (above 40.1%). Additionally, this is the 41st highest reading of bearish sentiment in the survey’s history. This particular reading is the highest since April 11, 2013 (54.5%), and the spread between bullish and bearish is at its lowest point since 2013 (–29.8%)."
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