Post by Admin/YBB on Apr 20, 2024 4:18:58 GMT -6
From Barron’s, April 22, 2024 (Part 1, Market Week+)
Pg 27, TRADER. The SP500 had a bad week (actually, a 3rd bad week), but remember that it’s up +21% since October 2023 low (Nasdaq Comp looked worse; NVDA sank). The economy is just too darn good (jobs, CPI, retail sales, forthcoming GDP). The CME FedWatch tool is showing only 1 rate cut in 2024. The 2-yr yield has risen to 5% indicating higher rates for longer. Israel-Iran spat/tensions have added to already existing geopolitical risks. Pricey SP500 with fwd P/E 20 may struggle – it moved below 50-dMA this week, and may test 200-dMA support 4,674, only 5.9% below. Be fearful in this dip (i.e. don’t rush to buy yet). (Poor seasonality is from May 1-October 31).
Companies whose EARNINGS have been revised up or maintained (i.e. not reduced) include GM, WHR, MAT, STX, AMP, SHW, MTDR, STLD.
The gas and chemicals company APD (fwd P/E 17.8) sold off on Q1 earnings miss and lowered guidance but is attractive now. It has global operations. The Q2 earnings are due on 4/30/24.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
The CME FedWatch tool is based on current fed fund futures quotes around the FOMC meetings and the assumption of gradual fed fund rate changes (+/- 0.25%). In the list below, more than 50% probability is used to indicate rate hike; “+” is shown after the FOMC date to indicate that rate hike can be at that or a later FOMC.
FOMC 5/1/24+ hold (cycle peak 5.25-5.50%)
FOMC 6/12/24+ hold
FOMC 7/31/24+ hold
FOMC 9/18/24+ cut
FOMC 11/7/24+ hold
FOMC 12/18/24+ hold
(Probabilities for some rate-ranges aren’t high, so there can be some unexpected moves.)
www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
FOR THE WEEK (index changes only), DJIA +0.01%, SP500 -3.05%, Nasdaq Comp -5.52%, R2000 -2.77%. DJ Transports -2.67%; DJ Utilities +2.42%. (Rotating spot iShares Bitcoin^ ETF IBIT -3.85%) US$ index (spot) UNCH (remains too strong over 100), oil/WTI futures -2.94%, gold futures +1.79%.
YTD (index changes only), DJIA +0.79%, SP500 +4.14%, Nasdaq Comp +1.80%. (Rotating spot iShares Bitcoin^ ETF IBIT +37.70%)
(^ 4th Bitcoin-Halving happened on 4/19/24 – YBB)
SENTIMENTS
Sentiments have collapsed; they peaked in mid-December and a minor peak was at March-end.
NYSE cumulative (5-day) A/D LINE fell for a 3rd week; ratio of winners:losers 1:2
FUND INFLOWS +/OUTFLOWS-: Stocks -|-, taxable bonds +|-, munis -|-, money-market funds -|-. (NEW FORMAT: 4wMA|weekly change)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +4.3% (below average). (Thursday-Wednesday)
(Sentiment Scale: v low << avg - 1*SD; low < avg - 1*SD; below avg, avg, above avg for in-between; high > avg + 1*SD, v high >> avg + 1*SD)
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=12&scrollTo=1285
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE-listed stocks 36.28% (negative; collapsing); (StockCharts $NYA50R for NYSE; $SPXA50R for the SP500 in the bottom panel),
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91704957718 .
Delta MSI 51.9% (positive, barely; badly lagging other indicators); a proprietary index for %Above 75-dMA for selected 1,800 stocks that is published midweek but is updated by Barron’s only on late-Fridays (so, it typically LAGS). The all-cap $NYA50R is typically closer to it than the large-cap $SPXA50R.
(Common Scale for %Above: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70; note that Delta MSI itself uses all in/out using 50% neutral value, but the same graduated scale is used here for both sources of %Above.)
Pg 28, INTERNATIONAL TRADER. Don’t underestimate S Korean Samsung Electronics for DRAM and NAND memory chips to compete with Taiwanese TSM, SK Hynix, US MU. It’s expanding production in the US under the CHIPS and Science Act. Its corporate governance has improved.
Pg 29, OPTIONS. Geopolitical tensions have added to volatility. Puts have become expensive on Israel-Iran tensions (there were already ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas conflict). Recommended is pairing index call-buying with blue-chips put-selling.
SP500 VIX 18.71 (low), Nasdaq 100 VXN 22.95, options SKEW 133.40 (high), bond MOVE 111.26 (Yahoo Finance data).
(Low VIX, high SKEW combo is a sign of nervous bulls)
finance.yahoo.com/quotes/%5EVIX,%5EVXN,%5ESKEW,%5EMOVE,%5EXAU/view/v1
Pg 42: A bad week in EUROPE (Spain +0.83%, Netherlands -3.48%) and a bad week in ASIA (Malaysia -0.67%, HK -3.66%).
TREASURY* 3-mo yield 5.45%, 1-yr 5.17%, 2-yr 4.97%, 5-yr 4.66%, 10-yr 4.62%, 30-yr 4.72%;
REAL yields 5-yr 2.22%, 10-yr 2.21%, 30-yr 2.36%;
FRNs Index** 5.32% (Treasury updates it on Tuesdays following the Monday 13-wk T-Bill Auctions).
DOLLAR rose ^DXY 106.12, +1% (pg 50). GOLD fell to 2,380, -1% (Handy & Harman spot, Thursday; pg 52); the gold-miners fell. (^XAU was at 136.01, UNCH for the week; badly lagging gold-bullion but catching up fast to approach 52-wk high)
Top FDIC insured savings deposit rates*** (This feature has been discontinued but see the link below)
US SAVINGS I-Bonds**, Rate from November 1, 2023, is 5.27%; the fixed rate is +1.30%, the semiannual inflation is +1.97%. NEW variable rate for May 1, 2024 is 1.48 x 2 = 2.96%, but the fixed/base rate will be released only on 4/30/24 or 5/1/24.
(NOTE – The Social Security COLA for 2025, based on the Q3 average of CPI-W, is ?, est +3%)
*Treasury Yield-Curve home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics?data=yield
**Treasury Direct (I-Bonds + T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, FRNs, TIPS)
www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/frn-daily/
www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/
***For local rates www.depositaccounts.com/banks/rates-map/
(BONUS from Part 2 include Cover Story, Up and Down Wall Street, Streetwise and these won’t be repeated in Part 2)
Pg 14, COVER STORY, “Nvidia/NVDA Won AI’s 1st Round. Now the Competition is Heating Up”. Highflying Nvidia’s lead in the GPU-based AI-chips won’t last forever; Taiwanese TSM makes chips designed by NVDA. Competing chipmakers AMD, INTC, QCOM, clients AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, the VC-backed startups and foreign companies are fast closing in with their own AI-chips. For now, there is high demand and long waits for pricey NVDA chips. NVDA says that it’s aware of all this and isn’t standing still.
Pg 5, UP & DOWN WALL STREET. New Meta.ai from META is based on new Llama 3. It has great text-to-image features so that one can create pictures gradually from text descriptions. AI application potential for healthcare diagnostics and monitoring is huge and the Mayo Clinic is developing a medical chatbot. Limitless is working on AI support for memory functions. But where is AAPL? It hasn’t released much information about its efforts on AI if there are any. But don’t count AAPL out of AI – it’s known to come from behind to lead. Then there is Apple Watch with many interesting possibilities for AI integration.
Pg 8, STREETWISE. EUROPE (IEV) has underperformed the US (IVV) for quite a while, but that may be changing, according to JPM. Be selective – AZN, DT, UBS, as there is no point going from the US to expensive European stocks – EADSY, ASML, NVO. Elsewhere, analysts are mixed on the outlooks for TSLA (the 2nd worst SP500 stock that reports on 4/23/24) and GL (the worst SP500 stock that was hit by a negative report from a short-selling firm on 4/11/24).
(More later….)
Accessible from PB-Big Bang, Facebook + Threads (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).
Pg 27, TRADER. The SP500 had a bad week (actually, a 3rd bad week), but remember that it’s up +21% since October 2023 low (Nasdaq Comp looked worse; NVDA sank). The economy is just too darn good (jobs, CPI, retail sales, forthcoming GDP). The CME FedWatch tool is showing only 1 rate cut in 2024. The 2-yr yield has risen to 5% indicating higher rates for longer. Israel-Iran spat/tensions have added to already existing geopolitical risks. Pricey SP500 with fwd P/E 20 may struggle – it moved below 50-dMA this week, and may test 200-dMA support 4,674, only 5.9% below. Be fearful in this dip (i.e. don’t rush to buy yet). (Poor seasonality is from May 1-October 31).
Companies whose EARNINGS have been revised up or maintained (i.e. not reduced) include GM, WHR, MAT, STX, AMP, SHW, MTDR, STLD.
The gas and chemicals company APD (fwd P/E 17.8) sold off on Q1 earnings miss and lowered guidance but is attractive now. It has global operations. The Q2 earnings are due on 4/30/24.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
The CME FedWatch tool is based on current fed fund futures quotes around the FOMC meetings and the assumption of gradual fed fund rate changes (+/- 0.25%). In the list below, more than 50% probability is used to indicate rate hike; “+” is shown after the FOMC date to indicate that rate hike can be at that or a later FOMC.
FOMC 5/1/24+ hold (cycle peak 5.25-5.50%)
FOMC 6/12/24+ hold
FOMC 7/31/24+ hold
FOMC 9/18/24+ cut
FOMC 11/7/24+ hold
FOMC 12/18/24+ hold
(Probabilities for some rate-ranges aren’t high, so there can be some unexpected moves.)
www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
FOR THE WEEK (index changes only), DJIA +0.01%, SP500 -3.05%, Nasdaq Comp -5.52%, R2000 -2.77%. DJ Transports -2.67%; DJ Utilities +2.42%. (Rotating spot iShares Bitcoin^ ETF IBIT -3.85%) US$ index (spot) UNCH (remains too strong over 100), oil/WTI futures -2.94%, gold futures +1.79%.
YTD (index changes only), DJIA +0.79%, SP500 +4.14%, Nasdaq Comp +1.80%. (Rotating spot iShares Bitcoin^ ETF IBIT +37.70%)
(^ 4th Bitcoin-Halving happened on 4/19/24 – YBB)
SENTIMENTS
Sentiments have collapsed; they peaked in mid-December and a minor peak was at March-end.
NYSE cumulative (5-day) A/D LINE fell for a 3rd week; ratio of winners:losers 1:2
FUND INFLOWS +/OUTFLOWS-: Stocks -|-, taxable bonds +|-, munis -|-, money-market funds -|-. (NEW FORMAT: 4wMA|weekly change)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +4.3% (below average). (Thursday-Wednesday)
(Sentiment Scale: v low << avg - 1*SD; low < avg - 1*SD; below avg, avg, above avg for in-between; high > avg + 1*SD, v high >> avg + 1*SD)
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=12&scrollTo=1285
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE-listed stocks 36.28% (negative; collapsing); (StockCharts $NYA50R for NYSE; $SPXA50R for the SP500 in the bottom panel),
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91704957718 .
Delta MSI 51.9% (positive, barely; badly lagging other indicators); a proprietary index for %Above 75-dMA for selected 1,800 stocks that is published midweek but is updated by Barron’s only on late-Fridays (so, it typically LAGS). The all-cap $NYA50R is typically closer to it than the large-cap $SPXA50R.
(Common Scale for %Above: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70; note that Delta MSI itself uses all in/out using 50% neutral value, but the same graduated scale is used here for both sources of %Above.)
Pg 28, INTERNATIONAL TRADER. Don’t underestimate S Korean Samsung Electronics for DRAM and NAND memory chips to compete with Taiwanese TSM, SK Hynix, US MU. It’s expanding production in the US under the CHIPS and Science Act. Its corporate governance has improved.
Pg 29, OPTIONS. Geopolitical tensions have added to volatility. Puts have become expensive on Israel-Iran tensions (there were already ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas conflict). Recommended is pairing index call-buying with blue-chips put-selling.
SP500 VIX 18.71 (low), Nasdaq 100 VXN 22.95, options SKEW 133.40 (high), bond MOVE 111.26 (Yahoo Finance data).
(Low VIX, high SKEW combo is a sign of nervous bulls)
finance.yahoo.com/quotes/%5EVIX,%5EVXN,%5ESKEW,%5EMOVE,%5EXAU/view/v1
Pg 42: A bad week in EUROPE (Spain +0.83%, Netherlands -3.48%) and a bad week in ASIA (Malaysia -0.67%, HK -3.66%).
TREASURY* 3-mo yield 5.45%, 1-yr 5.17%, 2-yr 4.97%, 5-yr 4.66%, 10-yr 4.62%, 30-yr 4.72%;
REAL yields 5-yr 2.22%, 10-yr 2.21%, 30-yr 2.36%;
FRNs Index** 5.32% (Treasury updates it on Tuesdays following the Monday 13-wk T-Bill Auctions).
DOLLAR rose ^DXY 106.12, +1% (pg 50). GOLD fell to 2,380, -1% (Handy & Harman spot, Thursday; pg 52); the gold-miners fell. (^XAU was at 136.01, UNCH for the week; badly lagging gold-bullion but catching up fast to approach 52-wk high)
Top FDIC insured savings deposit rates*** (This feature has been discontinued but see the link below)
US SAVINGS I-Bonds**, Rate from November 1, 2023, is 5.27%; the fixed rate is +1.30%, the semiannual inflation is +1.97%. NEW variable rate for May 1, 2024 is 1.48 x 2 = 2.96%, but the fixed/base rate will be released only on 4/30/24 or 5/1/24.
(NOTE – The Social Security COLA for 2025, based on the Q3 average of CPI-W, is ?, est +3%)
*Treasury Yield-Curve home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics?data=yield
**Treasury Direct (I-Bonds + T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, FRNs, TIPS)
www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/frn-daily/
www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/
***For local rates www.depositaccounts.com/banks/rates-map/
(BONUS from Part 2 include Cover Story, Up and Down Wall Street, Streetwise and these won’t be repeated in Part 2)
Pg 14, COVER STORY, “Nvidia/NVDA Won AI’s 1st Round. Now the Competition is Heating Up”. Highflying Nvidia’s lead in the GPU-based AI-chips won’t last forever; Taiwanese TSM makes chips designed by NVDA. Competing chipmakers AMD, INTC, QCOM, clients AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, the VC-backed startups and foreign companies are fast closing in with their own AI-chips. For now, there is high demand and long waits for pricey NVDA chips. NVDA says that it’s aware of all this and isn’t standing still.
Pg 5, UP & DOWN WALL STREET. New Meta.ai from META is based on new Llama 3. It has great text-to-image features so that one can create pictures gradually from text descriptions. AI application potential for healthcare diagnostics and monitoring is huge and the Mayo Clinic is developing a medical chatbot. Limitless is working on AI support for memory functions. But where is AAPL? It hasn’t released much information about its efforts on AI if there are any. But don’t count AAPL out of AI – it’s known to come from behind to lead. Then there is Apple Watch with many interesting possibilities for AI integration.
Pg 8, STREETWISE. EUROPE (IEV) has underperformed the US (IVV) for quite a while, but that may be changing, according to JPM. Be selective – AZN, DT, UBS, as there is no point going from the US to expensive European stocks – EADSY, ASML, NVO. Elsewhere, analysts are mixed on the outlooks for TSLA (the 2nd worst SP500 stock that reports on 4/23/24) and GL (the worst SP500 stock that was hit by a negative report from a short-selling firm on 4/11/24).
(More later….)
Accessible from PB-Big Bang, Facebook + Threads (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).