Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 14, 2023 5:34:08 GMT -6
Pg 10. PREVIEW & REVIEW (consolidated). 17.5% (vs 7% in 2020) of the NEW CAR buyers are paying more than $1,000/month. The new car prices are higher, and so are the interest rates. The average new car loan duration is 68.3 months. The growth in new car payments is much higher than the wage growth.
DATA THIS WEEK (seriously shrunk but supplemented from the link below). Retail sales, capacity utilization, industrial production, business inventories on TUESDAY; housing starts on WEDNESDAY; LEI, existing home sales on THURSDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Data This Week Link,
www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?mod=md_subnav#consensus-estimate
BULLISH. Drug distributor McKesson (MCK; yield 0.5%; fwd P/E 16.8; buybacks; should benefit from new hot diabetes/obesity drugs from LLY, NVO; drug transportation and delivery is low margin but regulated business; competitors are CAH, COR; pg 12);
Insurers (P&C ACGL, CB, EG, WRB; life & group benefits MET; insurance broker AJG; net earnings = underwriting premiums – claims + income from large float; pg 13);
Truist (TFC; yield 7%; fwd P/E 8.3%; sold rest 80% of its insurance brokerage business; cash will be used to strengthen balance sheet (to adjust for HTM + AFS losses), expand lending and wealth management businesses; old BB&T + SunTrust; EXTRA).
BEARISH.
Pg 11: OIL may be $100+ if Israel-Hamas conflict widens; otherwise, it may remain in $80-95 range. IRAN may be the swing factor for whether the conflict remains contained or spreads. The US and Russia may just be reacting to the unfolding events. The role of oil has changed globally – oil imports are less critical for the US now vs elsewhere.
Pg 14, THE BACK STORY (by PRINGLE). The FED eased too early in Fall 1973 and ignited a decade-long “Great Inflation”. The BURNS-Fed was relying more on money supply then vs a larger toolbox used by the Fed now. The Fed was quite nontransparent then vs now (some joke that “O” in the FOMC is for “Open” and “M” for “Mouth”; and then there are famous “leaks” via NT-WSJ). There also was the 1973 Yom Kippur War that disrupted global oil supplies more dramatically than the Israel-Hamas conflict now (the world has also learned to adjust quickly after the Russia-Ukraine War that isn’t stopping either). By the time Burns flip-flopped again in late-1974, it was too late. POWELL doesn’t want to be known as another flip-flopping Burns. His likely course now may be a rate PAUSE but to ease MONETARY conditions in other ways (more Fed credit facilities? Reduce/stop QT?).
Pg 20, INCOME. TIPS funds are recommended: STIP, VTIP; TIP, LTPZ; CEF WIW. (Unfortunately, TIPS funds are affected by real-rates and duration. TIPS held-to-maturity act differently and 5-yr TIPS may work better – there is an Auction on 10/19/23.)
(NOTE. No FUND stories beyond this. It seems that after the Funds Quarterly last week, Barron’s ran out of fund stories.)
Pg 20, TECH TRADER. New TECH CAPEX on AI may hurt their Q3 earnings. So, all this AI hype may backfire in the short-term. Watch META, GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX, IBM, etc.
Pg 21, ECONOMY. The US will just BORROW more to fund itself and its allies – NATO countries, Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, etc. The US annual budget DEFICIT is high for peaceful and good economic times (5%+ for FY2023, more for FY 2024 – when it’s done in the dysfunctional DC); think of it as geopolitical deficit (so, may be the US should start collecting protection fees from those who can afford). It’s less exposed now to volatile OIL prices as it is a major producer. Interest RATES will rise or remain high for longer. The US fiscal and monetary policies are out of sync.
Pg 22: Henrietta TREYZ, Veda Partners (federal policy analysis; DC-based). She discusses/mentions national debt, annual budget deficit, Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas conflict, House speaker, 2024 US elections, DC shutdown, international tariffs, US-China issues.
Pg 50, OTHER VOICES. Christopher SMART, Arbroath Group (investment strategy). The real effects of Israel-Hamas conflict will be felt much later and much farther away. This despite putting lot of blame around now and the current assumption that the conflict may be contained. Several current initiatives such as improving Israel-Saudi Arabia relations, the US-Iran thaw, etc may end or freeze. Long-term impacts may be for N Korea, Taiwan, Venezuela, and for the US global role.
Pg 51, RETIREMENT. Review your coverage and utilize MEDICARE annual open enrollment period (OEP) October 15-December 7 (with changes effective on January 1). These include Medicare Part B, Part D, Medicare Advantage/Part C; excluded are Medigap plans. (This is a new feature on the shrunk Mailbag page)
Medicare Premiums for 2024 www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2024-medicare-parts-b-premiums-and-deductibles
Edit/Add. GUIDE TO WEALTH Supplement has features on:
Where to INVEST $100K now with recommendations from Barron’s writers for less hyped AI play, Covid vaccines, EVs, retail, bond-ladders (ALB, BMWYY, BNTX, CMG, COST, ELF, ETN, F, IBM, MRNA, PFE, RIVN, TSLA, WMT; defined-maturity bond ETFs from BLK);
Where to SPEND $100K – charitable donations (DAFs; also direct, QCDs from IRAs), 529s for education, “cash” (online savings, money-market funds/accounts, T-Bills), home improvement, wedding/honeymoon, cruise;
Top picks by some professionals – ORCL (by NILES; less popular cloud play), VFC (by HARRINGTON; rebound story), COP (by NYGREN; inflation hedge), KKR (by ROBERTS; alternatives), INTC & INTU (AHLSTEN; rebound stories).
These are followed by state-by-state TOP Advisor Directory; TOP RIA Firms; TOP Advisory Teams.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
See Column Topics. It seems some consolidation/rearrangement of Columns is going on.
None
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook + Threads (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).
DATA THIS WEEK (seriously shrunk but supplemented from the link below). Retail sales, capacity utilization, industrial production, business inventories on TUESDAY; housing starts on WEDNESDAY; LEI, existing home sales on THURSDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Data This Week Link,
www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?mod=md_subnav#consensus-estimate
BULLISH. Drug distributor McKesson (MCK; yield 0.5%; fwd P/E 16.8; buybacks; should benefit from new hot diabetes/obesity drugs from LLY, NVO; drug transportation and delivery is low margin but regulated business; competitors are CAH, COR; pg 12);
Insurers (P&C ACGL, CB, EG, WRB; life & group benefits MET; insurance broker AJG; net earnings = underwriting premiums – claims + income from large float; pg 13);
Truist (TFC; yield 7%; fwd P/E 8.3%; sold rest 80% of its insurance brokerage business; cash will be used to strengthen balance sheet (to adjust for HTM + AFS losses), expand lending and wealth management businesses; old BB&T + SunTrust; EXTRA).
BEARISH.
Pg 11: OIL may be $100+ if Israel-Hamas conflict widens; otherwise, it may remain in $80-95 range. IRAN may be the swing factor for whether the conflict remains contained or spreads. The US and Russia may just be reacting to the unfolding events. The role of oil has changed globally – oil imports are less critical for the US now vs elsewhere.
Pg 14, THE BACK STORY (by PRINGLE). The FED eased too early in Fall 1973 and ignited a decade-long “Great Inflation”. The BURNS-Fed was relying more on money supply then vs a larger toolbox used by the Fed now. The Fed was quite nontransparent then vs now (some joke that “O” in the FOMC is for “Open” and “M” for “Mouth”; and then there are famous “leaks” via NT-WSJ). There also was the 1973 Yom Kippur War that disrupted global oil supplies more dramatically than the Israel-Hamas conflict now (the world has also learned to adjust quickly after the Russia-Ukraine War that isn’t stopping either). By the time Burns flip-flopped again in late-1974, it was too late. POWELL doesn’t want to be known as another flip-flopping Burns. His likely course now may be a rate PAUSE but to ease MONETARY conditions in other ways (more Fed credit facilities? Reduce/stop QT?).
Pg 20, INCOME. TIPS funds are recommended: STIP, VTIP; TIP, LTPZ; CEF WIW. (Unfortunately, TIPS funds are affected by real-rates and duration. TIPS held-to-maturity act differently and 5-yr TIPS may work better – there is an Auction on 10/19/23.)
(NOTE. No FUND stories beyond this. It seems that after the Funds Quarterly last week, Barron’s ran out of fund stories.)
Pg 20, TECH TRADER. New TECH CAPEX on AI may hurt their Q3 earnings. So, all this AI hype may backfire in the short-term. Watch META, GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX, IBM, etc.
Pg 21, ECONOMY. The US will just BORROW more to fund itself and its allies – NATO countries, Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, etc. The US annual budget DEFICIT is high for peaceful and good economic times (5%+ for FY2023, more for FY 2024 – when it’s done in the dysfunctional DC); think of it as geopolitical deficit (so, may be the US should start collecting protection fees from those who can afford). It’s less exposed now to volatile OIL prices as it is a major producer. Interest RATES will rise or remain high for longer. The US fiscal and monetary policies are out of sync.
Pg 22: Henrietta TREYZ, Veda Partners (federal policy analysis; DC-based). She discusses/mentions national debt, annual budget deficit, Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas conflict, House speaker, 2024 US elections, DC shutdown, international tariffs, US-China issues.
Pg 50, OTHER VOICES. Christopher SMART, Arbroath Group (investment strategy). The real effects of Israel-Hamas conflict will be felt much later and much farther away. This despite putting lot of blame around now and the current assumption that the conflict may be contained. Several current initiatives such as improving Israel-Saudi Arabia relations, the US-Iran thaw, etc may end or freeze. Long-term impacts may be for N Korea, Taiwan, Venezuela, and for the US global role.
Pg 51, RETIREMENT. Review your coverage and utilize MEDICARE annual open enrollment period (OEP) October 15-December 7 (with changes effective on January 1). These include Medicare Part B, Part D, Medicare Advantage/Part C; excluded are Medigap plans. (This is a new feature on the shrunk Mailbag page)
Medicare Premiums for 2024 www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2024-medicare-parts-b-premiums-and-deductibles
Edit/Add. GUIDE TO WEALTH Supplement has features on:
Where to INVEST $100K now with recommendations from Barron’s writers for less hyped AI play, Covid vaccines, EVs, retail, bond-ladders (ALB, BMWYY, BNTX, CMG, COST, ELF, ETN, F, IBM, MRNA, PFE, RIVN, TSLA, WMT; defined-maturity bond ETFs from BLK);
Where to SPEND $100K – charitable donations (DAFs; also direct, QCDs from IRAs), 529s for education, “cash” (online savings, money-market funds/accounts, T-Bills), home improvement, wedding/honeymoon, cruise;
Top picks by some professionals – ORCL (by NILES; less popular cloud play), VFC (by HARRINGTON; rebound story), COP (by NYGREN; inflation hedge), KKR (by ROBERTS; alternatives), INTC & INTU (AHLSTEN; rebound stories).
These are followed by state-by-state TOP Advisor Directory; TOP RIA Firms; TOP Advisory Teams.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
See Column Topics. It seems some consolidation/rearrangement of Columns is going on.
None
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook + Threads (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).