Post by Admin/YBB on Aug 5, 2023 5:22:38 GMT -6
Pg 11, PREVIEW & REVIEW (consolidated). TRAVEL is booming, but why are travel stocks (LUV, HLT, EXPE, BKNG, ABNB) suffering? Maybe they ran up too much in anticipation.
DATA THIS WEEK (seriously shrunk but see the link below). CPI (+3.3%, core +4.8%) on THURSDAY; PPI (core +2.5%), UM consumer sentiment on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Data This Week Link,
www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?mod=md_subnav#consensus-estimate
BULLISH. Nike (NKE; lagging stock may rebound strongly; excess inventory issues should disappear as global recovery continues; China is its 2nd biggest market; direct-to-consumer sales are improving, now 45%; pg 12);
Flying Taxis (new eVTOLS; multiple rotors and batteries create redundancies for safety; 50-100 mile range now; the FAA certification by 2025; the EU is moving fast too; JOBY, ACHR, LILM, EVEX, EH, EVTL, many were SPAC conversions before the SPAC bubble burst; pg 13).
BEARISH.
Pg 21, FUNDS. ACTIVE bond ETFs (ICSH, JPST, MINT; FBND, BOND, TOTL; SRLN, etc) have been around for years (unlike the active equity ETFs). The active bond strategies are hard to replicate. Active bond ETFs have lower costs, (marginal) tax-efficiency and transparency. But they may be volatile during market downturns or credit events. The newest are PYLD (a cousin of PIMIX), BINC, INCM (a cousin of hybrid FKINX).
Pg 22, INCOME. With GE turnaround making good progress, the CEO CULP is thinking about restoring a decent dividend (current 1c; possibly $1.30-2.00). GE Healthcare/GEHC has been spun off, and GE Power/Vernova will be spun off in 2024. Lot of debt has been paid down.
Pg 23, TECH TRADER. Amazon/AMZN Q2 was great. But Apple (AAPL; fwd P/E 30; P/S 7) was struggling – 4th quarterly revenue decline due to weakness in phones and laptops. The situation may improve with the upcoming iPhone 15 & 16. Unclear what the next big thing for AAPL is. It’s buying back stock. But AAPL is a value, no-growth stock priced like a growth highflyer. Prefer AMZN over AAPL.
Pg 24: Morgan HOUSEL, Author and Blogger; Partner, Collaborative Fund (a VC firm). Investors should be aware of individual behavioral issues; what may work for others may not work for you at all. Don’t chase tips. Don’t worry about common risks but only about huge, sudden and unknown risks (9/11, Lehman, Covid, etc). While we don’t know what the next big risk will be, be prepared so that it won’t knock you down. Don’t try to be rational but try to be reasonable. Don’t get overwhelmed by greed and/or fear. Have sufficient cash reserves (he has 20%). Use DCA for long-term investing.
Pg 26, ECONOMY. Higher rate older bonds are being CALLED on short notices. Despite rising rates, some older bonds may be REISSUED at marginally lower rates (their ratings may have improved too). Allan SLOAN writes about his old 5% NJ Transit muni that was called unexpectedly and reissued at 4.25%.
Pg 54, OTHER VOICES. Dana PETERSON, Conference Board. Soft landing or recession? Too early to call. Consumer confidence is at a 2-yr high. The job market is tight; the unemployment rate is historically low. But the consumer debt is rising. Binge buying for appliances and travel packages may be easing. Consumers are spending more on in-home streaming/entertainment and less on external entertainments. Housing has slowed as mortgage rates are 7%+. Some firms are reducing hiring; layoffs are rising. Many CEOs are projecting a recession in 12-18 months. So, lots of crosscurrents.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
See Column Topics. It seems some consolidation/rearrangement of Columns is going on.
None
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook + Threads (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).
DATA THIS WEEK (seriously shrunk but see the link below). CPI (+3.3%, core +4.8%) on THURSDAY; PPI (core +2.5%), UM consumer sentiment on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Data This Week Link,
www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?mod=md_subnav#consensus-estimate
BULLISH. Nike (NKE; lagging stock may rebound strongly; excess inventory issues should disappear as global recovery continues; China is its 2nd biggest market; direct-to-consumer sales are improving, now 45%; pg 12);
Flying Taxis (new eVTOLS; multiple rotors and batteries create redundancies for safety; 50-100 mile range now; the FAA certification by 2025; the EU is moving fast too; JOBY, ACHR, LILM, EVEX, EH, EVTL, many were SPAC conversions before the SPAC bubble burst; pg 13).
BEARISH.
Pg 21, FUNDS. ACTIVE bond ETFs (ICSH, JPST, MINT; FBND, BOND, TOTL; SRLN, etc) have been around for years (unlike the active equity ETFs). The active bond strategies are hard to replicate. Active bond ETFs have lower costs, (marginal) tax-efficiency and transparency. But they may be volatile during market downturns or credit events. The newest are PYLD (a cousin of PIMIX), BINC, INCM (a cousin of hybrid FKINX).
Pg 22, INCOME. With GE turnaround making good progress, the CEO CULP is thinking about restoring a decent dividend (current 1c; possibly $1.30-2.00). GE Healthcare/GEHC has been spun off, and GE Power/Vernova will be spun off in 2024. Lot of debt has been paid down.
Pg 23, TECH TRADER. Amazon/AMZN Q2 was great. But Apple (AAPL; fwd P/E 30; P/S 7) was struggling – 4th quarterly revenue decline due to weakness in phones and laptops. The situation may improve with the upcoming iPhone 15 & 16. Unclear what the next big thing for AAPL is. It’s buying back stock. But AAPL is a value, no-growth stock priced like a growth highflyer. Prefer AMZN over AAPL.
Pg 24: Morgan HOUSEL, Author and Blogger; Partner, Collaborative Fund (a VC firm). Investors should be aware of individual behavioral issues; what may work for others may not work for you at all. Don’t chase tips. Don’t worry about common risks but only about huge, sudden and unknown risks (9/11, Lehman, Covid, etc). While we don’t know what the next big risk will be, be prepared so that it won’t knock you down. Don’t try to be rational but try to be reasonable. Don’t get overwhelmed by greed and/or fear. Have sufficient cash reserves (he has 20%). Use DCA for long-term investing.
Pg 26, ECONOMY. Higher rate older bonds are being CALLED on short notices. Despite rising rates, some older bonds may be REISSUED at marginally lower rates (their ratings may have improved too). Allan SLOAN writes about his old 5% NJ Transit muni that was called unexpectedly and reissued at 4.25%.
Pg 54, OTHER VOICES. Dana PETERSON, Conference Board. Soft landing or recession? Too early to call. Consumer confidence is at a 2-yr high. The job market is tight; the unemployment rate is historically low. But the consumer debt is rising. Binge buying for appliances and travel packages may be easing. Consumers are spending more on in-home streaming/entertainment and less on external entertainments. Housing has slowed as mortgage rates are 7%+. Some firms are reducing hiring; layoffs are rising. Many CEOs are projecting a recession in 12-18 months. So, lots of crosscurrents.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
See Column Topics. It seems some consolidation/rearrangement of Columns is going on.
None
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook + Threads (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).