Post by Admin/YBB on Jan 16, 2021 9:16:20 GMT -6
[Italics within the brackets are my additions/elaborations]
Pg 12-13: Inauguration Day in DC on Wednesday, January 20. ECB & BOJ monetary policy decisions on Thursday.
After being dumped from DJIA in August, Exxon Mobil/XOM has done well as oil price rose. Its dividend is sustainable. The SEC has started an investigation on its valuation practices for some assets.
Data this week: Housing market index on Wednesday; housing starts on Thursday; existing home sales, manufacturing & services PMI on Friday.
Closed: US markets on Monday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Bullish: Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers [TOL; yield 1%; fwd P/E 9.2; benefiting from post-pandemic WFM-trend that is driving single-family supercycle; acquisition target for LEN, DHI? Pg 16]; gene-editing biotechs [CRSP, NTLA, EDIT, BEAM; there is potential for one-time treatment, repeatable every few years, for genetic disorders; FDA has approved genetic treatments for blindness (by Sparks/RHHBY) and a muscle-wasting disease (by AveXis/NVS); mentioned are gene-editing efforts by BMRN, QURE, PFE, SRPT, SGMO, CLLS, ALLO, BLUE; stocks can be volatile due to news about clinical trials and venture-capital funding rounds; pg 17].
Bearish: GameStop [GME; very poor timing for negative call last week as the stock doubled since but Barron’s is sticking with it; CHWY cofounder Ryan Cohen has 13% stake and he plus 2 former CHWY board members will join GME board; short squeeze is also at work; pg 14].
Pg 14: New Intel/INTC CEO Pat Gelsinger was CTO there years ago but left in 2009 after being passed over for CEO after Andy Grove. He has been a high-level executive elsewhere [President/COO EMC (now Dell EMC/DELL); CEO VMWare/VMW]. INTC has been rudderless under financial-type Bob Swan. But now, it will be led again by an engineer insider-outsider.
Pg 16: US rollout of vaccines has been quite poor as the Operation Warp Speed didn’t account for the last miles of distributions. Amid delays, there have been changes in eligibility and release of non-existing [!] reserves for 2nd doses. State & local governments have been poorly funded or prepared for mass vaccinations. Biden administration will need to simplify processes; provide targeted funding for vaccination distribution and administration programs; provide additional vaccinators; use National Guard for distribution; setup additional federal vaccination centers; start a new Warp Speed program for distribution and administration of vaccines.
Pg 20: Economic performance during presidential eras is examined. The recent 2017-20 Trump period is seen differently pre-pandemic and beyond. The stock market was already high in 2016 and kept going higher; it was the 3rd best after Coolidge and Clinton. Trade policies and tariffs didn’t affect overall trade deficit and some decrease vs China simply increased elsewhere. Business sentiment was better but didn’t reflect in capex – except for real estate. Movements in dollar and oil had more impact. Tax policies and lower interest rates led to higher dividends, buybacks and more borrowing. On 2020-hindsight, macroeconomic factors overwhelmed attempts to tinker with microeconomic factors.
Pg 23: 100 Years of Barron’s series continues – this time showing that Presidents are often powerless in influencing big contemporary events.
Pg 39: Biotech ETFs varied a lot in performance in 2020 from +13% to +180% {ARKG]. This is because of their varied emphasis on early-stage companies or specialization or mature companies or US vs foreign. Mentioned are ARKG [active], IDNA, GNOM, XBI [equal-weight; no pharma], BBC, IBB [highly diversified].
Pg 40: Here are 26 key words from Section 230, “No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider”. And that was written before many of the social-media and e-commerce companies were around. Some say that Section 230 built the new generation of Web 2.0 and beyond. While fixing Section 230 is needed, its repeal isn’t a solution. Pre-230 situation was even worse as courts held then that web hosting services had liability if they moderated content, but not from unmoderated, anything-goes content. Section 230 allowed limited moderation without liability. [Section 230 was separated from 1996 Communications Decency Act that was struck down as unconstitutional]
Pg 42: Taxes on dividends may go up for high-earning taxpayers [$1+ million/yr crowd].
Extras from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version
Andrew Mattock and Winnei Chwang, China MCHFX, MCSMX. Chinese Internet companies are facing scrutiny from the US and China. They may be restricted from monopolistic practices and entering new businesses such as payment systems. The US-China trade relations may improve, and delisting threats may resolve with mutual compromises. Chinese A-share market has 4,000 stocks with market-cap of $9 trillion, and HK H-shares has 2,000 stocks with market-cap of $6 trillion. So, 240 US-listed Chinese ADRs with market-cap $1.8 trillion are significant but not the only game, and institutions will follow them to other exchanges. Losers will be the US exchanges and retail customers. China remains on the path to self-sufficiency in critical areas – computers, electronics, automation, industrials, etc. Covid-19 didn’t impact Chinese economy and budget that much and its exports have rebounded strongly. While IT and consumer-staples may be expensive, other areas remain attractive.
Pg 12-13: Inauguration Day in DC on Wednesday, January 20. ECB & BOJ monetary policy decisions on Thursday.
After being dumped from DJIA in August, Exxon Mobil/XOM has done well as oil price rose. Its dividend is sustainable. The SEC has started an investigation on its valuation practices for some assets.
Data this week: Housing market index on Wednesday; housing starts on Thursday; existing home sales, manufacturing & services PMI on Friday.
Closed: US markets on Monday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Bullish: Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers [TOL; yield 1%; fwd P/E 9.2; benefiting from post-pandemic WFM-trend that is driving single-family supercycle; acquisition target for LEN, DHI? Pg 16]; gene-editing biotechs [CRSP, NTLA, EDIT, BEAM; there is potential for one-time treatment, repeatable every few years, for genetic disorders; FDA has approved genetic treatments for blindness (by Sparks/RHHBY) and a muscle-wasting disease (by AveXis/NVS); mentioned are gene-editing efforts by BMRN, QURE, PFE, SRPT, SGMO, CLLS, ALLO, BLUE; stocks can be volatile due to news about clinical trials and venture-capital funding rounds; pg 17].
Bearish: GameStop [GME; very poor timing for negative call last week as the stock doubled since but Barron’s is sticking with it; CHWY cofounder Ryan Cohen has 13% stake and he plus 2 former CHWY board members will join GME board; short squeeze is also at work; pg 14].
Pg 14: New Intel/INTC CEO Pat Gelsinger was CTO there years ago but left in 2009 after being passed over for CEO after Andy Grove. He has been a high-level executive elsewhere [President/COO EMC (now Dell EMC/DELL); CEO VMWare/VMW]. INTC has been rudderless under financial-type Bob Swan. But now, it will be led again by an engineer insider-outsider.
Pg 16: US rollout of vaccines has been quite poor as the Operation Warp Speed didn’t account for the last miles of distributions. Amid delays, there have been changes in eligibility and release of non-existing [!] reserves for 2nd doses. State & local governments have been poorly funded or prepared for mass vaccinations. Biden administration will need to simplify processes; provide targeted funding for vaccination distribution and administration programs; provide additional vaccinators; use National Guard for distribution; setup additional federal vaccination centers; start a new Warp Speed program for distribution and administration of vaccines.
Pg 20: Economic performance during presidential eras is examined. The recent 2017-20 Trump period is seen differently pre-pandemic and beyond. The stock market was already high in 2016 and kept going higher; it was the 3rd best after Coolidge and Clinton. Trade policies and tariffs didn’t affect overall trade deficit and some decrease vs China simply increased elsewhere. Business sentiment was better but didn’t reflect in capex – except for real estate. Movements in dollar and oil had more impact. Tax policies and lower interest rates led to higher dividends, buybacks and more borrowing. On 2020-hindsight, macroeconomic factors overwhelmed attempts to tinker with microeconomic factors.
Pg 23: 100 Years of Barron’s series continues – this time showing that Presidents are often powerless in influencing big contemporary events.
Pg 39: Biotech ETFs varied a lot in performance in 2020 from +13% to +180% {ARKG]. This is because of their varied emphasis on early-stage companies or specialization or mature companies or US vs foreign. Mentioned are ARKG [active], IDNA, GNOM, XBI [equal-weight; no pharma], BBC, IBB [highly diversified].
Pg 40: Here are 26 key words from Section 230, “No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider”. And that was written before many of the social-media and e-commerce companies were around. Some say that Section 230 built the new generation of Web 2.0 and beyond. While fixing Section 230 is needed, its repeal isn’t a solution. Pre-230 situation was even worse as courts held then that web hosting services had liability if they moderated content, but not from unmoderated, anything-goes content. Section 230 allowed limited moderation without liability. [Section 230 was separated from 1996 Communications Decency Act that was struck down as unconstitutional]
Pg 42: Taxes on dividends may go up for high-earning taxpayers [$1+ million/yr crowd].
Extras from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version
Andrew Mattock and Winnei Chwang, China MCHFX, MCSMX. Chinese Internet companies are facing scrutiny from the US and China. They may be restricted from monopolistic practices and entering new businesses such as payment systems. The US-China trade relations may improve, and delisting threats may resolve with mutual compromises. Chinese A-share market has 4,000 stocks with market-cap of $9 trillion, and HK H-shares has 2,000 stocks with market-cap of $6 trillion. So, 240 US-listed Chinese ADRs with market-cap $1.8 trillion are significant but not the only game, and institutions will follow them to other exchanges. Losers will be the US exchanges and retail customers. China remains on the path to self-sufficiency in critical areas – computers, electronics, automation, industrials, etc. Covid-19 didn’t impact Chinese economy and budget that much and its exports have rebounded strongly. While IT and consumer-staples may be expensive, other areas remain attractive.