Post by Admin/YBB on Mar 4, 2023 9:32:16 GMT -6
Pg 10-11. BOJ monetary policy decision on FRIDAY. (POWELL’s testimony at the Senate (TUESDAY) and the House (WEDNESDAY) committees)
REVIEW. HOUSING is showing some signs of strength in 2023. But that may make the FED’s job of taming INFLATION more difficult.
PREVIEW. The US OIL production will go up only by +3% in 2023. The oil companies are not deploying their huge profits into E&P, capex, jobs.
DATA THIS WEEK. Factory orders on MONDAY; Consumer credit on TUESDAY; ADP national employment report, JOLTS report, international trade deficit on WEDNESDAY; household net worth on THURSDAY; jobs report (+200,000 to +215,000), unemployment rate (3.4%) on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. P&C insurer Chubb (CB; yield 1.6%, dividend Aristocrat; fwd P/E 11.5; buybacks; strong underwriting; offers insurance bundling; expanding into Asia and bought Cigna/C operations there; CEO Evan Greenberg, 68; pg 12);
Small-cap Boot Barn (BOOT; fwd P/E 13.4; low debt; financing growth internally; Western-wear for men and women; its Cowboy Chick line is hot; pg 13).
BEARISH.
Pg 14: After RETIREMENT, don’t just move into a low-income TAX state as other taxes and costs there may be higher. Look at total taxes – on income, property (also check homestead exemptions), sales (including gas tax). Check whether pensions, Social Security, withdrawals from 401k/403b/T-IRAs are taxed.
Pg 15: Vincent CLERC, CEO 2023- , A.P. Moller Maersk (AMKBY; container shipping and logistics; Denmark). Maersk is integrating its sea and land shipping/transportation, logistics, e-commerce. It can deal with wide shipping price fluctuations by providing integrated services. Maersk is committed to being carbon-neutral by 2040. Its business is cyclical; also, the companies prefer air transport in times of high demand but then switch to shipping as demand stabilizes. The US, and possibly Europe, may avoid recession if the job market and consumer spending remain strong. Globalization will remain in some form, but countries will localize/regionalize key industry and security areas. Most supply-chains would remain global. China reopening hasn’t arrived yet. Despite tariffs, the US trade deficit with China has grown; primary US-China trade frictions are in high-tech areas only. Rapid developments in AI are raising ethical issues.
Pg 22, ESG – 100 Most Sustainable Companies: 1-CLX, 2-INTC, 3-KMB, 4-CBRE, 5-WAT,…,96-WCC, 97-IPG, 98-HUBS, 99-AVY, 100-KEYS.
The ESG has become controversial but that isn’t stopping companies to move forward on ESG. Some ESG funds have misled investors and the SEC has cracked down on that. These Barron’s ratings were developed by Calvert (MS) using its own data as well as those from the ISS, MSCI, Sustainalytics (MORN/M*).
Pg 28, FOLLOW UP. After a brutal 2022, Target/TGT is rebounding. The pandemic related supply-chain and inventory issues are now behind.
Pg 28, INCOME INVESTING. VARIABLE-DIVIDENDS aren’t hot anymore. They were adopted by several cyclicals (energy, natural resources). Investors realized that variable dividends may rise (good) or fall (bad). Some companies are shifting towards buybacks (the ups and downs are less noticeable there).
Pg 29, FUNDS. BIOTECH funds are attractive now. They peaked in 02/2021 after a deluge of biotech IPOs following the pandemic in 2020. Mentioned are ETAHX, FBDIX, FBIOX, JAGLX, LYFIX, PRHSX, SHSAX; ETF XBI. (by MFO @lewisbraham)
Pg 30, ECONOMY. The strong economic data for JANUARY were misleading. The Winter has been mild and SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS really caused mis-adjustments. The RATES and their expectations have continued to move up. INFLATION may have peaked but remains at a high level.
Pg 31, TECH TRADER. Lavish STOCK-BASED COMPENSATION are not good for company investors because of dilution. Now that techs have tumbled, this issue is attracting more attention. Among the biggest culprits (as %revenues) are OKTA (36%), CFLT, SNOW (42%), HCP.
Pg 34, FUNDS. Barnaby WILSON, Lazard Asset Management (OCMPX, etc). He is searching the GROWTH stock rubble globally for quality stocks with good cash flows, reasonable valuations, competitive moats, pricing advantage. He avoids companies with unprofitable growth.
Pg62, OTHER VOICES. Betsy SPEROS and Shehzad QAZI, China Beige Book (2010- ). CHINA’s manufacturing and property sectors are finally turning around. Consumer spending has been up in 2023 (for travel, hotels, dining, entertainment, retail, luxury goods). Chinese monetary policy may depend on whether these early trends hold or falter.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).
REVIEW. HOUSING is showing some signs of strength in 2023. But that may make the FED’s job of taming INFLATION more difficult.
PREVIEW. The US OIL production will go up only by +3% in 2023. The oil companies are not deploying their huge profits into E&P, capex, jobs.
DATA THIS WEEK. Factory orders on MONDAY; Consumer credit on TUESDAY; ADP national employment report, JOLTS report, international trade deficit on WEDNESDAY; household net worth on THURSDAY; jobs report (+200,000 to +215,000), unemployment rate (3.4%) on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. P&C insurer Chubb (CB; yield 1.6%, dividend Aristocrat; fwd P/E 11.5; buybacks; strong underwriting; offers insurance bundling; expanding into Asia and bought Cigna/C operations there; CEO Evan Greenberg, 68; pg 12);
Small-cap Boot Barn (BOOT; fwd P/E 13.4; low debt; financing growth internally; Western-wear for men and women; its Cowboy Chick line is hot; pg 13).
BEARISH.
Pg 14: After RETIREMENT, don’t just move into a low-income TAX state as other taxes and costs there may be higher. Look at total taxes – on income, property (also check homestead exemptions), sales (including gas tax). Check whether pensions, Social Security, withdrawals from 401k/403b/T-IRAs are taxed.
Pg 15: Vincent CLERC, CEO 2023- , A.P. Moller Maersk (AMKBY; container shipping and logistics; Denmark). Maersk is integrating its sea and land shipping/transportation, logistics, e-commerce. It can deal with wide shipping price fluctuations by providing integrated services. Maersk is committed to being carbon-neutral by 2040. Its business is cyclical; also, the companies prefer air transport in times of high demand but then switch to shipping as demand stabilizes. The US, and possibly Europe, may avoid recession if the job market and consumer spending remain strong. Globalization will remain in some form, but countries will localize/regionalize key industry and security areas. Most supply-chains would remain global. China reopening hasn’t arrived yet. Despite tariffs, the US trade deficit with China has grown; primary US-China trade frictions are in high-tech areas only. Rapid developments in AI are raising ethical issues.
Pg 22, ESG – 100 Most Sustainable Companies: 1-CLX, 2-INTC, 3-KMB, 4-CBRE, 5-WAT,…,96-WCC, 97-IPG, 98-HUBS, 99-AVY, 100-KEYS.
The ESG has become controversial but that isn’t stopping companies to move forward on ESG. Some ESG funds have misled investors and the SEC has cracked down on that. These Barron’s ratings were developed by Calvert (MS) using its own data as well as those from the ISS, MSCI, Sustainalytics (MORN/M*).
Pg 28, FOLLOW UP. After a brutal 2022, Target/TGT is rebounding. The pandemic related supply-chain and inventory issues are now behind.
Pg 28, INCOME INVESTING. VARIABLE-DIVIDENDS aren’t hot anymore. They were adopted by several cyclicals (energy, natural resources). Investors realized that variable dividends may rise (good) or fall (bad). Some companies are shifting towards buybacks (the ups and downs are less noticeable there).
Pg 29, FUNDS. BIOTECH funds are attractive now. They peaked in 02/2021 after a deluge of biotech IPOs following the pandemic in 2020. Mentioned are ETAHX, FBDIX, FBIOX, JAGLX, LYFIX, PRHSX, SHSAX; ETF XBI. (by MFO @lewisbraham)
Pg 30, ECONOMY. The strong economic data for JANUARY were misleading. The Winter has been mild and SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS really caused mis-adjustments. The RATES and their expectations have continued to move up. INFLATION may have peaked but remains at a high level.
Pg 31, TECH TRADER. Lavish STOCK-BASED COMPENSATION are not good for company investors because of dilution. Now that techs have tumbled, this issue is attracting more attention. Among the biggest culprits (as %revenues) are OKTA (36%), CFLT, SNOW (42%), HCP.
Pg 34, FUNDS. Barnaby WILSON, Lazard Asset Management (OCMPX, etc). He is searching the GROWTH stock rubble globally for quality stocks with good cash flows, reasonable valuations, competitive moats, pricing advantage. He avoids companies with unprofitable growth.
Pg62, OTHER VOICES. Betsy SPEROS and Shehzad QAZI, China Beige Book (2010- ). CHINA’s manufacturing and property sectors are finally turning around. Consumer spending has been up in 2023 (for travel, hotels, dining, entertainment, retail, luxury goods). Chinese monetary policy may depend on whether these early trends hold or falter.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).