Post by Admin/YBB on Dec 31, 2022 5:54:09 GMT -6
Pg 28, TRADER. Worries for early-2023: the FED, JOBs, Mercury in retrograde (!). There will be the talk of the January Effect, the first 5 trading days predicting the month or the year, more 2023 predictions (they are already all over the place), poor Q4 earnings report, January 6 jobs report, etc.
3 strong sectors in 2022 should continue their run in 2023: Energy/XLE, consumer-staples/XLP, healthcare/XLV.
Outlook for CRYPTOS in 2023 is gloomy. Projections for Bitcoin range from 8,000-25,000 in H1, and 25,000-50,000 in H2 (only of the Fed pivots).
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
The CME FedWatch tool is based on current fed fund futures quotes around the FOMC meetings and the assumption of gradual fed fund rate changes (+/- 0.25%). In the list below, more than 50% probability is used to indicate rate hike; “+” is shown after the FOMC date to indicate that rate hike can be at that or a later FOMC.
1st rate hike of 2023, FOMC 2/1/23+ 25 bps
2nd rate hike, FOMC 3/22/23+ 25 bps
FOMC 5/3/23+ Hold
3rd rate hike, FOMC 6/14/23+ 25 bps (rate 5.00-5.25%; likely cycle peak)
www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
FOR THE WEEK (index changes only), DJIA -0.17%, SP500 -0.14%, Nasdaq Comp -0.30%, R2000 +0.02%. DJ Transports -1.27%; DJ Utilities -0.84%. (Rotating spot energy XLE +0.47%) US$ index (spot) -0.79%, oil/WTI futures +0.88%, gold futures +1.33%.
YTD (index changes only), DJIA -8.78%, SP500 -19.44%, Nasdaq Comp -33.10%. (Rotating spot energy XLE +57.60%)
Pg 40: NYSE cumulative (5-day) A/D line fell for a 4th week; ratio of winners:losers 1:1+. (Thursday was 91% upside-volume day)
Pg 31, EUROPEAN TRADER. Comic Con is publishing giant RELX’s (fwd P/E 20.1; old Reed Elsevier) minor but highly visible, cash flow positive event series. It publishes journals and analytics in law, medicine and science/technology areas.
Pg 31, EMERGING MARKETS. As CHINA ditched its zero-Covid policy (due to massive demonstrations), the Covid case will rise alarmingly. Weak healthcare system may be overwhelmed. Chinese vaccines, although the earliest to the market, had only limited successes and pride is getting in the way of buying Western or Asian vaccines. The troubled PROPERTY sector will have more problems; many advance-paid apartments may never be built causing the consumers to complain and avoid future property investments. Chinese STOCKS are near 7-yr lows and may rebound when this Covid wave blows over in a few months and the delayed recovery/reopening takes hold.
Pg 32, OPTIONS. Economic Winter will follow this Holiday season. Consumer spending will buckle as the FED keeps hiking rates and causes a RECESSION. Many consumers will trade-down (i.e. switch to cheaper brands or products). Recommended for consumer-discretionary XLY is pairing selling calls, buying puts and selling puts (put-spread-collar) (caution – XLY has 33.67% just in AMZN and TSLA).
(SP500 VIX 21.67 (high), Nasdaq 100 VXN 27.60 (high), options SKEW 113.57, bond MOVE 121.61 (high)) (Yahoo Finance data).
finance.yahoo.com/quotes/%5EVIX,%5EVXN,%5ESKEW,%5EMOVE,%5EXAU/view/v1
Pg 33, COMMODITIES. Dr COPPER prices have weakened on recession fears and have more downside; the peak was in March and the recent rebound attempt was on false hopes. Chile and Peru are the top 2 global producers and there are some problems there. China accounts for 52% of global demand. It’s a near-term bearish, long-term bullish story.
Pg 45: An up week in EUROPE (Sweden +1.34%, Norway -0.17%, Greece -0.23%) and a flat week in ASIA (India +2.99%, S Korea -3.47%).
TREASURY* 3-mo yield 4.42%, 1-yr 4.73%, 2-yr 4.41%, 5-yr 3.99%, 10-yr 3.88%, 30-yr 3.97%. REAL yields 5-yr 1.66%, 10-yr 1.58%, 30-yr 1.67%.
DOLLAR fell, ^DXY 103.49, -0.81% (pg 50). GOLD rose to $1,812, +0.6% (Handy & Harman spot, Thursday; pg 52); the gold-miners fell. (^XAU was at 120.86, -0.85% for the week)
Top FDIC insured savings deposit rates** (This feature has been discontinued)
US SAVINGS I-Bonds^, current rate 6.89% (annualized); fixed/base rate +0.40%. Rates change on May 1 & November 1.
*Treasury Yield-Curve home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics?data=yield
**For local rates www.depositaccounts.com/banks/rates-map/
^Treasury Direct (I-Bonds + T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, FRNs, TIPS) www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/
(BONUS from Part 2 include Cover Story, Up and Down Wall Street, Streetwise and these won’t be repeated in Part 2)
Pg 14: COVER STORY, ”The Best INCOME Ideas for 2023”. (I have arranged the orders as OEFs, ETFs, CEFs, individual securities)
Energy Pipelines: AMLP, NTG, EPD, ET, KMI, WMB
US Dividend Stocks: SCHD, NOBL, VYM, KBWB, C, INTC, JPM, PNC, USB
Foreign Dividend Stocks: IDV, SCHY
Real Estate: VNQ, RQI
Convertibles: MCIFX, CWB, AVK, busted convertibles
HY: HYG, HYT, JQC
Munis: PHMIX, VWITX, NEA
Preferreds: PFF, PFFR, JPM-M, T-C, WFC-Z, REITs-preferreds
Telecom: T, TMUS, VZ
Cash Alternatives: VMFXX, VUBFX, BIL, SHV, 3-mo T-Bills, T-Bill ladders
Treasuries: SHY, TLT, STIP, TIP
Utilities: XLU, UTG, DUK, ED, NEE, SO, XEL
Pg 5, UP AND DOWN WALL STREET. What if the widely anticipated RECESSION 2023 doesn’t happen? Well, don’t be happy. Because then, the FED won’t pivot (pause or cut). And if there is recession, then the maximum pain will be in Q1-Q2, but then the Fed may pivot. (So, the choice is prolonged water torture or a sharp hit and recovery/rebound) The Fed balance sheet reduction (QT) will also be a headwind; the M2 is declining but from a very high level.
The Fed RATE hikes and yearend tax-loss harvesting (TLH) have depressed bond CEFs including the MUNI CEFs. As there isn’t any systemic problem looming in the muni market, these may be good for trade with small amounts: NEA, NAD, BTT, NVG; unleveraged NUV.
Pg 7, STREETWISE. Cheap stocks, part II: Videogame maker TTWO, chipmaker MU, media WBD. Use BTD at your own risk.
(More later….)
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).
3 strong sectors in 2022 should continue their run in 2023: Energy/XLE, consumer-staples/XLP, healthcare/XLV.
Outlook for CRYPTOS in 2023 is gloomy. Projections for Bitcoin range from 8,000-25,000 in H1, and 25,000-50,000 in H2 (only of the Fed pivots).
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
The CME FedWatch tool is based on current fed fund futures quotes around the FOMC meetings and the assumption of gradual fed fund rate changes (+/- 0.25%). In the list below, more than 50% probability is used to indicate rate hike; “+” is shown after the FOMC date to indicate that rate hike can be at that or a later FOMC.
1st rate hike of 2023, FOMC 2/1/23+ 25 bps
2nd rate hike, FOMC 3/22/23+ 25 bps
FOMC 5/3/23+ Hold
3rd rate hike, FOMC 6/14/23+ 25 bps (rate 5.00-5.25%; likely cycle peak)
www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
FOR THE WEEK (index changes only), DJIA -0.17%, SP500 -0.14%, Nasdaq Comp -0.30%, R2000 +0.02%. DJ Transports -1.27%; DJ Utilities -0.84%. (Rotating spot energy XLE +0.47%) US$ index (spot) -0.79%, oil/WTI futures +0.88%, gold futures +1.33%.
YTD (index changes only), DJIA -8.78%, SP500 -19.44%, Nasdaq Comp -33.10%. (Rotating spot energy XLE +57.60%)
Pg 40: NYSE cumulative (5-day) A/D line fell for a 4th week; ratio of winners:losers 1:1+. (Thursday was 91% upside-volume day)
Pg 31, EUROPEAN TRADER. Comic Con is publishing giant RELX’s (fwd P/E 20.1; old Reed Elsevier) minor but highly visible, cash flow positive event series. It publishes journals and analytics in law, medicine and science/technology areas.
Pg 31, EMERGING MARKETS. As CHINA ditched its zero-Covid policy (due to massive demonstrations), the Covid case will rise alarmingly. Weak healthcare system may be overwhelmed. Chinese vaccines, although the earliest to the market, had only limited successes and pride is getting in the way of buying Western or Asian vaccines. The troubled PROPERTY sector will have more problems; many advance-paid apartments may never be built causing the consumers to complain and avoid future property investments. Chinese STOCKS are near 7-yr lows and may rebound when this Covid wave blows over in a few months and the delayed recovery/reopening takes hold.
Pg 32, OPTIONS. Economic Winter will follow this Holiday season. Consumer spending will buckle as the FED keeps hiking rates and causes a RECESSION. Many consumers will trade-down (i.e. switch to cheaper brands or products). Recommended for consumer-discretionary XLY is pairing selling calls, buying puts and selling puts (put-spread-collar) (caution – XLY has 33.67% just in AMZN and TSLA).
(SP500 VIX 21.67 (high), Nasdaq 100 VXN 27.60 (high), options SKEW 113.57, bond MOVE 121.61 (high)) (Yahoo Finance data).
finance.yahoo.com/quotes/%5EVIX,%5EVXN,%5ESKEW,%5EMOVE,%5EXAU/view/v1
Pg 33, COMMODITIES. Dr COPPER prices have weakened on recession fears and have more downside; the peak was in March and the recent rebound attempt was on false hopes. Chile and Peru are the top 2 global producers and there are some problems there. China accounts for 52% of global demand. It’s a near-term bearish, long-term bullish story.
Pg 45: An up week in EUROPE (Sweden +1.34%, Norway -0.17%, Greece -0.23%) and a flat week in ASIA (India +2.99%, S Korea -3.47%).
TREASURY* 3-mo yield 4.42%, 1-yr 4.73%, 2-yr 4.41%, 5-yr 3.99%, 10-yr 3.88%, 30-yr 3.97%. REAL yields 5-yr 1.66%, 10-yr 1.58%, 30-yr 1.67%.
DOLLAR fell, ^DXY 103.49, -0.81% (pg 50). GOLD rose to $1,812, +0.6% (Handy & Harman spot, Thursday; pg 52); the gold-miners fell. (^XAU was at 120.86, -0.85% for the week)
Top FDIC insured savings deposit rates** (This feature has been discontinued)
US SAVINGS I-Bonds^, current rate 6.89% (annualized); fixed/base rate +0.40%. Rates change on May 1 & November 1.
*Treasury Yield-Curve home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics?data=yield
**For local rates www.depositaccounts.com/banks/rates-map/
^Treasury Direct (I-Bonds + T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, FRNs, TIPS) www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/
(BONUS from Part 2 include Cover Story, Up and Down Wall Street, Streetwise and these won’t be repeated in Part 2)
Pg 14: COVER STORY, ”The Best INCOME Ideas for 2023”. (I have arranged the orders as OEFs, ETFs, CEFs, individual securities)
Energy Pipelines: AMLP, NTG, EPD, ET, KMI, WMB
US Dividend Stocks: SCHD, NOBL, VYM, KBWB, C, INTC, JPM, PNC, USB
Foreign Dividend Stocks: IDV, SCHY
Real Estate: VNQ, RQI
Convertibles: MCIFX, CWB, AVK, busted convertibles
HY: HYG, HYT, JQC
Munis: PHMIX, VWITX, NEA
Preferreds: PFF, PFFR, JPM-M, T-C, WFC-Z, REITs-preferreds
Telecom: T, TMUS, VZ
Cash Alternatives: VMFXX, VUBFX, BIL, SHV, 3-mo T-Bills, T-Bill ladders
Treasuries: SHY, TLT, STIP, TIP
Utilities: XLU, UTG, DUK, ED, NEE, SO, XEL
Pg 5, UP AND DOWN WALL STREET. What if the widely anticipated RECESSION 2023 doesn’t happen? Well, don’t be happy. Because then, the FED won’t pivot (pause or cut). And if there is recession, then the maximum pain will be in Q1-Q2, but then the Fed may pivot. (So, the choice is prolonged water torture or a sharp hit and recovery/rebound) The Fed balance sheet reduction (QT) will also be a headwind; the M2 is declining but from a very high level.
The Fed RATE hikes and yearend tax-loss harvesting (TLH) have depressed bond CEFs including the MUNI CEFs. As there isn’t any systemic problem looming in the muni market, these may be good for trade with small amounts: NEA, NAD, BTT, NVG; unleveraged NUV.
Pg 7, STREETWISE. Cheap stocks, part II: Videogame maker TTWO, chipmaker MU, media WBD. Use BTD at your own risk.
(More later….)
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).