Post by Admin/YBB on Jan 9, 2021 9:35:10 GMT -6
[Italics within the brackets are my additions/elaborations]
Pg 8-9: Q4 earnings season starts on Friday with major banks reporting.
JP Morgan Chase/JPM, Amazon/AMZN, Berkshire Hathaway/BRK-A/B closed their joint-venture Haven Healthcare after 3 years of trying and executive turnovers [CEO, COO, etc]. JPM, AMZN, BRK will absorb respective portions of Haven into their own operations.
Virtual Consumer Electronics Show [CES 2021] will start on Monday. Customized software will be provided by Microsoft/MSFT. The CES website will remain partially open for a month. Participating will be 1,900+ companies, 100,000+ registrants and many countries. CES 2022 is expected to be live again.
Data this week: Small business optimism index, JOLTS report on Tuesday; CPI, monthly Treasury budget on Wednesday; retail sales, PPI, UM consumer sentiment, capacity utilization, industrial production on Friday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Bullish: See other stories.
Bearish: GameStop [GME; earnings and sales declines; multiple threats from e-commerce (online game sales, in-game transactions, less used game discs sold in its mall-based stores); own online efforts just starting; failed attempts to sell mobile phones and plans; stock runup on hopes of business rebound not sustainable; accumulation of 13% stake by Ryan Cohen (CHWY cofounder) with goals of strategic changes; Michael Burry (Scion Asset Management) bought shares when under $4 and has been selling; 58% of available shares are short, so a potential short-squeeze may be going on; pg 13].
Pg 15: Another piece [series?] on 100 years of Barron’s that features some oldies that are still around [X, MO, UNP, GE].
Pg 16: Regulatory risks are rising for big techs [AMZN, GOOGL, FB, TWTR]. Some are already blaming social-media firms for the events leading up to a mob taking over the US Capitol on Wednesday, 1/6/21. FB recently revised its privacy policy that will allow sharing of WhatsApp personal information with other FB apps. FB will follow surveillance capitalism to benefit small businesses and its pocketbook. FB is fighting AAPL on AAPL’s explicit opt-in for activity tracking. Social-media liability and Section 230 are also issues. Antitrust risks for big techs have increased.
Pg 18: Post-pandemic future looks bright. With the new hybrid home- and-office model and growing e-commerce, productivity in many sectors will rise. Many underused offices and hotels may be converted to apartments. During the pandemic, productivity already rose by +8% and consumption for goods increased by +7%. Without mandatory presence at office, workers may relocate to distant and cheaper areas and that would affect urban and suburban real estate. Fiscal stimulus is providing individuals and businesses with extra cash.
Pg 19: 5 SP500 Dividend Aristocrats XOM, T, CAT, LEG, SYY have to increase dividends in calendar year 2021 to remain as Aristocrats.
Pg 20: Carmen Reinhart, World Bank. Pandemic recovery [in per capita income and other measures] may take years and there may be financial crisis along the way. Don’t confuse rebound/snapback with recovery. Global GDP growth may be +4% in 2021. Growth in global debt in all economies [developed, developing] and sectors [households, businesses, sovereigns] is alarming, and after Covid-19 is under control, that debt will have to be repaid. Nonperforming loans will hit the financial system. Global central banks have easy monetary policies but that has to reverse sometimes. Even now those policies are not helping/addressing income inequalities, people who have lost jobs, businesses that have closed or gone bankrupt, countries that have lost revenues. Low rates are encouraging risky behaviors by investors searching for higher yields and returns and that may end badly. Historically, there is economic boom and bust, but now there may be bust without boom. EMs have been affected adversely, especially the commodity producing/exporting EMs. Countries like China were not hurt badly by Covid-19, but even their recoveries are restrained – they may have industrial capacity to export but the rest of world may not be buying as much.
Extras from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version
None
Pg 8-9: Q4 earnings season starts on Friday with major banks reporting.
JP Morgan Chase/JPM, Amazon/AMZN, Berkshire Hathaway/BRK-A/B closed their joint-venture Haven Healthcare after 3 years of trying and executive turnovers [CEO, COO, etc]. JPM, AMZN, BRK will absorb respective portions of Haven into their own operations.
Virtual Consumer Electronics Show [CES 2021] will start on Monday. Customized software will be provided by Microsoft/MSFT. The CES website will remain partially open for a month. Participating will be 1,900+ companies, 100,000+ registrants and many countries. CES 2022 is expected to be live again.
Data this week: Small business optimism index, JOLTS report on Tuesday; CPI, monthly Treasury budget on Wednesday; retail sales, PPI, UM consumer sentiment, capacity utilization, industrial production on Friday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Bullish: See other stories.
Bearish: GameStop [GME; earnings and sales declines; multiple threats from e-commerce (online game sales, in-game transactions, less used game discs sold in its mall-based stores); own online efforts just starting; failed attempts to sell mobile phones and plans; stock runup on hopes of business rebound not sustainable; accumulation of 13% stake by Ryan Cohen (CHWY cofounder) with goals of strategic changes; Michael Burry (Scion Asset Management) bought shares when under $4 and has been selling; 58% of available shares are short, so a potential short-squeeze may be going on; pg 13].
Pg 15: Another piece [series?] on 100 years of Barron’s that features some oldies that are still around [X, MO, UNP, GE].
Pg 16: Regulatory risks are rising for big techs [AMZN, GOOGL, FB, TWTR]. Some are already blaming social-media firms for the events leading up to a mob taking over the US Capitol on Wednesday, 1/6/21. FB recently revised its privacy policy that will allow sharing of WhatsApp personal information with other FB apps. FB will follow surveillance capitalism to benefit small businesses and its pocketbook. FB is fighting AAPL on AAPL’s explicit opt-in for activity tracking. Social-media liability and Section 230 are also issues. Antitrust risks for big techs have increased.
Pg 18: Post-pandemic future looks bright. With the new hybrid home- and-office model and growing e-commerce, productivity in many sectors will rise. Many underused offices and hotels may be converted to apartments. During the pandemic, productivity already rose by +8% and consumption for goods increased by +7%. Without mandatory presence at office, workers may relocate to distant and cheaper areas and that would affect urban and suburban real estate. Fiscal stimulus is providing individuals and businesses with extra cash.
Pg 19: 5 SP500 Dividend Aristocrats XOM, T, CAT, LEG, SYY have to increase dividends in calendar year 2021 to remain as Aristocrats.
Pg 20: Carmen Reinhart, World Bank. Pandemic recovery [in per capita income and other measures] may take years and there may be financial crisis along the way. Don’t confuse rebound/snapback with recovery. Global GDP growth may be +4% in 2021. Growth in global debt in all economies [developed, developing] and sectors [households, businesses, sovereigns] is alarming, and after Covid-19 is under control, that debt will have to be repaid. Nonperforming loans will hit the financial system. Global central banks have easy monetary policies but that has to reverse sometimes. Even now those policies are not helping/addressing income inequalities, people who have lost jobs, businesses that have closed or gone bankrupt, countries that have lost revenues. Low rates are encouraging risky behaviors by investors searching for higher yields and returns and that may end badly. Historically, there is economic boom and bust, but now there may be bust without boom. EMs have been affected adversely, especially the commodity producing/exporting EMs. Countries like China were not hurt badly by Covid-19, but even their recoveries are restrained – they may have industrial capacity to export but the rest of world may not be buying as much.
Extras from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version
None