Post by Admin/YBB on Dec 24, 2022 5:52:20 GMT -6
Pg 35, TRADER. Stocks are aimlessly limping towards 2023. Bulls have a dilemma – RECESSION may be here regardless of what the FED does (continue tightening or pause). Facing uncertainties, investors are rushing to buy PUTS as indicated by record put-call ratio, a contrarian indicator (but low SKEW means that puts are still not more expensive relative to calls). As this bad year comes to a close, a Santa-rally may cut the YTD losses. Enjoy the Holidays and wish for a better 2023.
There is a retrospective on this analyst’s hits and misses (these are also seen in several other columns of this issue).
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
The CME FedWatch tool is based on current fed fund futures quotes around the FOMC meetings and the assumption of gradual fed fund rate changes (+/- 0.25%). In the list below, more than 50% probability is used to indicate rate hike; “+” is shown after the FOMC date to indicate that rate hike can be at that or a later FOMC.
1st rate hike of 2023, FOMC 2/1/23+ 25 bps
2nd rate hike, FOMC 3/22/23+ 25 bps (rate 4.75-5.00%; likely cycle peak)
Hold, FOMC 5/3/22 and several FOMCs after
Cuts at Q4 FOMCs
www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
FOR THE WEEK (index changes only), DJIA +0.86%, SP500 -0.20%, Nasdaq Comp -1.94%, R2000 -0.14%. DJ Transports -1.26%; DJ Utilities +1.28%. (Rotating spot SC R2000 -0.14%) US$ index (spot) -0.30%, oil/WTI futures +7.09%, gold futures +0.33%.
YTD (index changes only), DJIA -8.63%, SP500 -19.33%, Nasdaq Comp -32.90%. (Rotating spot SC R2000 -21.57%)
Pg 40: NYSE cumulative (5-day) A/D line fell for a 4th week; ratio of winners:losers 7:8. (Wednesday was 87% upside-volume day; Thursday was only 71% downside-volume day)
Pg 31, EUROPEAN TRADER. 2022 unexpectedly became the year for ENERGY due to Russia-Ukraine war, and Europe was affected the most. Then, the space is wasted on this Column’s authors’ hits and misses.
Pg 31, EMERGING MARKETS. 2022 wasn’t a good year for the EMs. Russia-Ukraine war and China were drags on the EMs. Much of the piece is devoted to hits and misses to one of this Column’s authors (CM).
Pg 32, OPTIONS. LESSONS for options traders from 2022: Volatility is desirable; use options as adjuncts to stock holdings; be disciplined; take good profits (+70% in a few days/weeks is unusual); losses happen, so move on; roll option positions; be contrarian; sell puts to buy good stocks at attractive prices; avoid complex strategies (let professionals do those); be flexible.
(SP500 VIX 20.87 (high), Nasdaq 100 VXN 26.33 (high), options SKEW 114.57, bond MOVE 113.17) (Yahoo Finance data).
finance.yahoo.com/quotes/%5EVIX,%5EVXN,%5ESKEW,%5EMOVE,%5EXAU/view/v1
Pg 33, COMMODITIES. Russia-Ukraine war caused commodity prices to rise sharply in early-2022 – energy (oil, natural gas), ags (wheat, corn, etc), metals (palladium, platinum, etc). Some prices have come down. Concerns now have turned to slowdown/recession.
Pg 45: An up week in EUROPE (Spain +2.00%, Netherlands -1.36%) and a bad week in ASIA (Philippines +0.82%, India -3.92%).
TREASURY* 3-mo yield 4.34%, 1-yr 4.66%, 2-yr 4.31%, 5-yr 3.86%, 10-yr 3.75%, 30-yr 3.82%. REAL yields 5-yr 1.57%, 10-yr 1.55%, 30-yr 1.60%.
DOLLAR fell, ^DXY 104.33, -0.3% (pg 50). GOLD rose to $1,801, +0.9% (Handy & Harman spot, Thursday; pg 52); the gold-miners rose. (^XAU was at 121.89, +3.67% for the week)
Top FDIC insured savings deposit rates** (This feature has been discontinued)
US SAVINGS I-Bonds^, current rate 6.89% (annualized); fixed/base rate +0.40%. Rates change on May 1 & November 1.
*Treasury Yield-Curve home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics?data=yield
**For local rates www.depositaccounts.com/banks/rates-map/
^Treasury Direct (I-Bonds + T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, FRNs, TIPS) www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/
(BONUS from Part 2 include Cover Story, Up and Down Wall Street, Streetwise and these won’t be repeated in Part 2)
Pg 16: COVER STORY, ”ROBOTS Are Replacing Workers Lost in the Pandemic. They’re Here to Stay”. Due to post-pandemic labor shortages and rising wages, including rising minimum wages in several states, many companies are deploying more robots and automation. A growing application is COBOTS (collaborating robots) for food and medicine delivery, hotel room services and other services. Companies are renting/leasing these as in robots-as-a-service model. AMZN uses robots extensively in its warehouses/distribution centers/fulfillment centers. WBA now has several automated prescription fulfillment centers that can fill up to 300 prescriptions/hr for hundreds of its regional stores. CMG has a robotic tortilla-chip maker. Hospitals are deploying mobile cobots for delivering food and drugs to patients. While these interesting applications are growing, most of the robots are still used in industrial settings. The use of robots in Japan and S Korea is quite high. But robots are still quite far from replacing humans on a large scale.
Pg 19: Companies involved in AI/robotics/automation include CGNX, ISRG, Fanuc (Japan), ROK; ETF is ROBO.
Pg 5, UP AND DOWN WALL STREET. Aron JUDGE’s 62nd homerun baseball sold in auction for (only) 1.5 million (record was $3 million 25 years ago for Mark McGwire’s baseball). The once red-hot COLLECTIBLES market has turned cold. Collectable (09/2020- ) is a fractional-owning/trading marketplace for sports collectibles and prices there are down sharply; the former SEC Chair CLAYTON is an advisor.
Alphabet/GOOGL has acquired rights for STREAMING NFL games at $2 billion/yr; the other bidders included AMZN, AAPL, DirectTV (previous contract holder), etc. Google hasn’t announced pricing or bundles for out-of-town NFL games on YouTube.
Pg 7, STREETWISE. Some cheap stocks have been dead money for decades: CAKE, WW, HOG, MAT, etc.
EXTRA. The BOJ surprised investors by widening its yield band for 10-yr to +/- 50 bps around 0%; Japanese bonds sold off. However, the QE will continue. The BOJ Governor’s term ends in a few months. Inflation is +3.6%.
(More later….)
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).
There is a retrospective on this analyst’s hits and misses (these are also seen in several other columns of this issue).
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
The CME FedWatch tool is based on current fed fund futures quotes around the FOMC meetings and the assumption of gradual fed fund rate changes (+/- 0.25%). In the list below, more than 50% probability is used to indicate rate hike; “+” is shown after the FOMC date to indicate that rate hike can be at that or a later FOMC.
1st rate hike of 2023, FOMC 2/1/23+ 25 bps
2nd rate hike, FOMC 3/22/23+ 25 bps (rate 4.75-5.00%; likely cycle peak)
Hold, FOMC 5/3/22 and several FOMCs after
Cuts at Q4 FOMCs
www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
FOR THE WEEK (index changes only), DJIA +0.86%, SP500 -0.20%, Nasdaq Comp -1.94%, R2000 -0.14%. DJ Transports -1.26%; DJ Utilities +1.28%. (Rotating spot SC R2000 -0.14%) US$ index (spot) -0.30%, oil/WTI futures +7.09%, gold futures +0.33%.
YTD (index changes only), DJIA -8.63%, SP500 -19.33%, Nasdaq Comp -32.90%. (Rotating spot SC R2000 -21.57%)
Pg 40: NYSE cumulative (5-day) A/D line fell for a 4th week; ratio of winners:losers 7:8. (Wednesday was 87% upside-volume day; Thursday was only 71% downside-volume day)
Pg 31, EUROPEAN TRADER. 2022 unexpectedly became the year for ENERGY due to Russia-Ukraine war, and Europe was affected the most. Then, the space is wasted on this Column’s authors’ hits and misses.
Pg 31, EMERGING MARKETS. 2022 wasn’t a good year for the EMs. Russia-Ukraine war and China were drags on the EMs. Much of the piece is devoted to hits and misses to one of this Column’s authors (CM).
Pg 32, OPTIONS. LESSONS for options traders from 2022: Volatility is desirable; use options as adjuncts to stock holdings; be disciplined; take good profits (+70% in a few days/weeks is unusual); losses happen, so move on; roll option positions; be contrarian; sell puts to buy good stocks at attractive prices; avoid complex strategies (let professionals do those); be flexible.
(SP500 VIX 20.87 (high), Nasdaq 100 VXN 26.33 (high), options SKEW 114.57, bond MOVE 113.17) (Yahoo Finance data).
finance.yahoo.com/quotes/%5EVIX,%5EVXN,%5ESKEW,%5EMOVE,%5EXAU/view/v1
Pg 33, COMMODITIES. Russia-Ukraine war caused commodity prices to rise sharply in early-2022 – energy (oil, natural gas), ags (wheat, corn, etc), metals (palladium, platinum, etc). Some prices have come down. Concerns now have turned to slowdown/recession.
Pg 45: An up week in EUROPE (Spain +2.00%, Netherlands -1.36%) and a bad week in ASIA (Philippines +0.82%, India -3.92%).
TREASURY* 3-mo yield 4.34%, 1-yr 4.66%, 2-yr 4.31%, 5-yr 3.86%, 10-yr 3.75%, 30-yr 3.82%. REAL yields 5-yr 1.57%, 10-yr 1.55%, 30-yr 1.60%.
DOLLAR fell, ^DXY 104.33, -0.3% (pg 50). GOLD rose to $1,801, +0.9% (Handy & Harman spot, Thursday; pg 52); the gold-miners rose. (^XAU was at 121.89, +3.67% for the week)
Top FDIC insured savings deposit rates** (This feature has been discontinued)
US SAVINGS I-Bonds^, current rate 6.89% (annualized); fixed/base rate +0.40%. Rates change on May 1 & November 1.
*Treasury Yield-Curve home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics?data=yield
**For local rates www.depositaccounts.com/banks/rates-map/
^Treasury Direct (I-Bonds + T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, FRNs, TIPS) www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/
(BONUS from Part 2 include Cover Story, Up and Down Wall Street, Streetwise and these won’t be repeated in Part 2)
Pg 16: COVER STORY, ”ROBOTS Are Replacing Workers Lost in the Pandemic. They’re Here to Stay”. Due to post-pandemic labor shortages and rising wages, including rising minimum wages in several states, many companies are deploying more robots and automation. A growing application is COBOTS (collaborating robots) for food and medicine delivery, hotel room services and other services. Companies are renting/leasing these as in robots-as-a-service model. AMZN uses robots extensively in its warehouses/distribution centers/fulfillment centers. WBA now has several automated prescription fulfillment centers that can fill up to 300 prescriptions/hr for hundreds of its regional stores. CMG has a robotic tortilla-chip maker. Hospitals are deploying mobile cobots for delivering food and drugs to patients. While these interesting applications are growing, most of the robots are still used in industrial settings. The use of robots in Japan and S Korea is quite high. But robots are still quite far from replacing humans on a large scale.
Pg 19: Companies involved in AI/robotics/automation include CGNX, ISRG, Fanuc (Japan), ROK; ETF is ROBO.
Pg 5, UP AND DOWN WALL STREET. Aron JUDGE’s 62nd homerun baseball sold in auction for (only) 1.5 million (record was $3 million 25 years ago for Mark McGwire’s baseball). The once red-hot COLLECTIBLES market has turned cold. Collectable (09/2020- ) is a fractional-owning/trading marketplace for sports collectibles and prices there are down sharply; the former SEC Chair CLAYTON is an advisor.
Alphabet/GOOGL has acquired rights for STREAMING NFL games at $2 billion/yr; the other bidders included AMZN, AAPL, DirectTV (previous contract holder), etc. Google hasn’t announced pricing or bundles for out-of-town NFL games on YouTube.
Pg 7, STREETWISE. Some cheap stocks have been dead money for decades: CAKE, WW, HOG, MAT, etc.
EXTRA. The BOJ surprised investors by widening its yield band for 10-yr to +/- 50 bps around 0%; Japanese bonds sold off. However, the QE will continue. The BOJ Governor’s term ends in a few months. Inflation is +3.6%.
(More later….)
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).