Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 16, 2022 7:53:51 GMT -6
Pg 12-13. BOJ (no change?) and ECB (rate hike?) monetary policy decisions on THURSDAY.
REVIEW. Jeremy SIEGEL says that things now are different from 1970s and early-1980s. After some unfortunate delays following the pandemic stimulus, the FED has started monetary tightening. The market may not have bottomed, but valuations have become attractive.
PREVIEW. Michael NG (GS) says that toys are consumer-staples and Mattel/MAT is attractive on its TV and movie licenses (including from Disney/DIS). (Also see Trader, Part 1)
DATA THIS WEEK: Housing market index on MONDAY; housing starts in TUESDAY; existing home sales on WEDNESDAY; LEI on THURSDAY; manufacturing PMI, services PMI on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Cosmetics giant Estee Lauder (EL; -34% YTD; fwd P/E 30; pandemic crushed this industry; 33% sales in China; recovery and reopening play but recession will hurt; increasing direct-to-consumer sales using online platforms such as JD, etc; reports on 8/1/22; pg 16).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 14: HOUSING affordability (rising mortgage rates and high housing prices) is pressuring the housing market. Several hot markets have slowed down – Bridgeport/CT, Boise/ID, Austin/TX, LV/NV, etc. Listing and sales prices are beginning to diverge and multiple offers on newly listed housing are less common. This cooling off is healthy.
Pg 15: The flip side of hot housing markets is that many potential owners may remain RENTERS for longer and that is bullish for APARTMENT REITs (-20% YTD). They are trading at -21% discounts to NAVs, have attractive yields and fwd P/FFO. Housing is CYCLICAL, and prices should weaken with expected recession. At the same time, housing is NONDISCRETIONARY as people have to rent or own. Mentioned are AVR, EQR, ESS, CPT, MAA, AIRC, UDR.
Pg 32: FUNDS. After years of deflation, JAPAN is seeing some inflation due to high oil prices and supply-chain disruptions. The BOJ is continuing its easy monetary policy until the inflation target of +2% is met, and yen has collapsed. Japanese funds are attractive: GMAHX, HJPNX, MJFOX, PRJPX; ETFs EWJ, EWJV, DFJ. (Note that currency-hedged Japan funds are not mentioned as it may be too late for that; strong dollar has already hurt US investors’ foreign returns.)
Pg 34, TECH TRADER. Several CHINESE TECHS are now attractive: BABA, JD, BIDU, TCOM, TCEHY, PDD, UXIN; ETF KWEB.
Several SC-growth/R2000-growth stocks are attractive: ITI, ATEN, SILC, FVRR, VUZI, BILL, TOST, etc.
Beware of risks in these stocks.
Pg 35: ECONOMY. Another bad INFLATION reading prompted market strategists and fed fund futures traders to project 100 bps hike at the July FOMC meeting. But that may be unlikely due to other data on retail sales and UM consumer sentiment. Few now expect a Fed pause and rates may peak in December. The Fed easing may eventually start in 09/2023.
Pg 35: SP500 DIVIDEND growth may slow down, +6% in 2023, +7% in 2024, according to dividend-futures market. This is due to possible recession in 2022/23.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).
REVIEW. Jeremy SIEGEL says that things now are different from 1970s and early-1980s. After some unfortunate delays following the pandemic stimulus, the FED has started monetary tightening. The market may not have bottomed, but valuations have become attractive.
PREVIEW. Michael NG (GS) says that toys are consumer-staples and Mattel/MAT is attractive on its TV and movie licenses (including from Disney/DIS). (Also see Trader, Part 1)
DATA THIS WEEK: Housing market index on MONDAY; housing starts in TUESDAY; existing home sales on WEDNESDAY; LEI on THURSDAY; manufacturing PMI, services PMI on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Cosmetics giant Estee Lauder (EL; -34% YTD; fwd P/E 30; pandemic crushed this industry; 33% sales in China; recovery and reopening play but recession will hurt; increasing direct-to-consumer sales using online platforms such as JD, etc; reports on 8/1/22; pg 16).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 14: HOUSING affordability (rising mortgage rates and high housing prices) is pressuring the housing market. Several hot markets have slowed down – Bridgeport/CT, Boise/ID, Austin/TX, LV/NV, etc. Listing and sales prices are beginning to diverge and multiple offers on newly listed housing are less common. This cooling off is healthy.
Pg 15: The flip side of hot housing markets is that many potential owners may remain RENTERS for longer and that is bullish for APARTMENT REITs (-20% YTD). They are trading at -21% discounts to NAVs, have attractive yields and fwd P/FFO. Housing is CYCLICAL, and prices should weaken with expected recession. At the same time, housing is NONDISCRETIONARY as people have to rent or own. Mentioned are AVR, EQR, ESS, CPT, MAA, AIRC, UDR.
Pg 32: FUNDS. After years of deflation, JAPAN is seeing some inflation due to high oil prices and supply-chain disruptions. The BOJ is continuing its easy monetary policy until the inflation target of +2% is met, and yen has collapsed. Japanese funds are attractive: GMAHX, HJPNX, MJFOX, PRJPX; ETFs EWJ, EWJV, DFJ. (Note that currency-hedged Japan funds are not mentioned as it may be too late for that; strong dollar has already hurt US investors’ foreign returns.)
Pg 34, TECH TRADER. Several CHINESE TECHS are now attractive: BABA, JD, BIDU, TCOM, TCEHY, PDD, UXIN; ETF KWEB.
Several SC-growth/R2000-growth stocks are attractive: ITI, ATEN, SILC, FVRR, VUZI, BILL, TOST, etc.
Beware of risks in these stocks.
Pg 35: ECONOMY. Another bad INFLATION reading prompted market strategists and fed fund futures traders to project 100 bps hike at the July FOMC meeting. But that may be unlikely due to other data on retail sales and UM consumer sentiment. Few now expect a Fed pause and rates may peak in December. The Fed easing may eventually start in 09/2023.
Pg 35: SP500 DIVIDEND growth may slow down, +6% in 2023, +7% in 2024, according to dividend-futures market. This is due to possible recession in 2022/23.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), PB-Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).