Post by Admin/YBB on May 28, 2022 9:20:29 GMT -6
Pg 10-11.
REVIEW. Pessimism is everywhere – from WEF, Davos to Main Street to Wall Street. Cited are DALIO (Bridgewater), ACKMAN (Pershing Square), SUMMERS, SOROS.
PREVIEW. Netflix/NFLX has sold off sharply due to poor earnings report. It is trying to reduce/eliminate password sharing and may launch a lower-price ad-supported subscription plan.
DATA THIS WEEK. ISM Chicago business barometer, consumer confidence on TUESDAY; JOLTS report, ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending on WEDNESDAY; ADP national employment report, factory orders on THURSDAY; ISM services PMI, jobs report (+301,000 to +350,000), unemployment rate (3.5%) on FRIDAY.
CLOSED. US markets on MONDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. 6 high-quality stocks at reasonable valuations (FB, GOOGL, LRCX, MU, NFLX, TER; the selloff has made them attractive; pg 12);
BristolMyers Squibb (BMY; rare +22% YTD but now only slightly above where it was in 08/2016; fwd P/E 10; strong new drug pipeline; pg 14).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 13: MANAGED-FUTURES FUNDS (liquid-alternatives) are doing well this year. They follow trends (up with longs, down with shorts). Several are riding bullish trends in commodities and dollar, and bearish trend in bonds. Their ERs are high and long-term records are poor/uneven. Mentioned are AQMNX, PQTAX/PQTIX, ABYIX, AHLYX, ASFYX, LFMAX.
Pg 15: FOLLOW UP. Boeing/BA hasn’t recovered from the dual hits of 737-MAX (that returned to service in 11/2020) and pandemic. The hoped-for/suggested steps in Barron’s bullish story on 8/13/21 haven’t happened.
Pg 15: FOLLOW UP. Under Armour/UAA stock was crushed on poor earnings report, the CEO departure and a general selloff in the consumer-discretionary sector. Barron’s bullish call on 4/24/22 turned out to be quite premature but patient investors may be rewarded in future.
Pg 22: New, decentralized WEB3 remains a much talked-about promise; it was to provide additional boost to CRYPTOS (see Cover Story in Part 1). Backlash from high-tech and crypto collapses may delay some developments and there may be several boom-bust cycles ahead as faced by Web1 (1990s- ) and Web2 (2000s- ). For venture-capitalists, a new TOKENOMICS is in play and their payouts can be within a couple of years (VCs get paid in tokens and can cash out when tokens go live on exchanges rather than waiting for IPOs or acquisitions). There is vagueness in what is Web3, and many adventurous entrepreneurs are exploiting that (it can be whatever you want to hear). Future blockchain transactions may involve processing fees that may support their development and valuations. There may also be decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) that may offer voice and vote on policy matter to their members. Much of the secrecy offered/promised by cryptos may be gone. There will be regulatory hurdles for issues related to money and securities. There are some inherent contradictions. For a while, Web2 and Web3 may coexist, or there may be transitional Web2.5.
Pg 26: TIPs for retirement investors include buy the dips, be in the market, use dollar cost averaging (DCA), Roth Conversions, I-Bonds (current rate is 9.62% but annual limit is $10K/person or trust), rebalance, diversification, sound financial planning. New investors can start with target-date funds (TDFs), target-risk funds (static/ strategic conservative/ moderate/ aggressive allocations), robo-advisors and then move on to other types of investment vehicles.
Pg 30: FUNDS. Kari MONTANUS of mid-cap (deep) value CMUAX (ER 1.13; Morningstar 4*, Neutral; she previously comanaged large-cap value CSVZX) looks for some catalyst for change and tries to avoid value traps. Fund is concentrated with 45-50 stocks. Holdings may be kept even if they become large-caps.
Pg 32: INCOME INVESTING. Investors have preferred dividends over buybacks; mentioned are BKR, MMM, MCD, MDT, HBAN, IBM, DUK. The so-called shareholder-yield (dividend yield + buyback yield) hasn’t caught on. Global dividends were up +11.1% in 2022/Q1 vs -5% for 2021/Q1; for 2022, global dividends may be up +7.1% in local currencies.
Pg 33, ECONOMY. Soft-landing or hard-landing/recession? The economic data are pointing to SLOWDOWN – home sales, household savings, PMI, jobless claims, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, business inventories, layoffs, consumer confidence, rents/owners’-rent-equivalents. Rising fed fund RATES and QT combo will result in strong monetary tightening. A way out may be for the FED to just move its average inflation target from +2% to, say, +4%, so say several strategists and economists (YARDENI, own firm; ROMER, NYU; El-Erian, Allianz). Fed’s favorite inflation indicator PCE already lags others, and it is down to +4.9%, not far from +4%.
Pg 34, TECH TRADER. Cloud data management company Snowflake (SNOW; 09/2020 IPO at $120) peaked at $405 in 11/2021 and recently was briefly below its IPO price. Its big investors include BRK and CRM. If you missed the IPO, and its wild roller-coaster ride, it may now be time to buy it.
Pg 62: OTHER VOICES. Ben BERNANKE, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Bernanke suggests several factors that caused the FED/FOMC to delay its policy responses: 1) New flexible AVERAGE inflation targeting (FAIT; to be reviewed in 2024-25), 2) new policy of avoiding preemptive responses to strong LABOR markets, 3) distorted/scrambled labor market data during the PANDEMIC and post-pandemic, 4) initial Fed/FOMC belief that the inflation was TRANSITORY, but it turned out not to be. Russia-Ukraine war added additional complications and disruptions. He suggests that FAIT would prove to be fine but that new measures/tools be developed for assessing the labor markets. His new book, 21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve from the Great Inflation to Covid-19, 05/2022.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).
REVIEW. Pessimism is everywhere – from WEF, Davos to Main Street to Wall Street. Cited are DALIO (Bridgewater), ACKMAN (Pershing Square), SUMMERS, SOROS.
PREVIEW. Netflix/NFLX has sold off sharply due to poor earnings report. It is trying to reduce/eliminate password sharing and may launch a lower-price ad-supported subscription plan.
DATA THIS WEEK. ISM Chicago business barometer, consumer confidence on TUESDAY; JOLTS report, ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending on WEDNESDAY; ADP national employment report, factory orders on THURSDAY; ISM services PMI, jobs report (+301,000 to +350,000), unemployment rate (3.5%) on FRIDAY.
CLOSED. US markets on MONDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. 6 high-quality stocks at reasonable valuations (FB, GOOGL, LRCX, MU, NFLX, TER; the selloff has made them attractive; pg 12);
BristolMyers Squibb (BMY; rare +22% YTD but now only slightly above where it was in 08/2016; fwd P/E 10; strong new drug pipeline; pg 14).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 13: MANAGED-FUTURES FUNDS (liquid-alternatives) are doing well this year. They follow trends (up with longs, down with shorts). Several are riding bullish trends in commodities and dollar, and bearish trend in bonds. Their ERs are high and long-term records are poor/uneven. Mentioned are AQMNX, PQTAX/PQTIX, ABYIX, AHLYX, ASFYX, LFMAX.
Pg 15: FOLLOW UP. Boeing/BA hasn’t recovered from the dual hits of 737-MAX (that returned to service in 11/2020) and pandemic. The hoped-for/suggested steps in Barron’s bullish story on 8/13/21 haven’t happened.
Pg 15: FOLLOW UP. Under Armour/UAA stock was crushed on poor earnings report, the CEO departure and a general selloff in the consumer-discretionary sector. Barron’s bullish call on 4/24/22 turned out to be quite premature but patient investors may be rewarded in future.
Pg 22: New, decentralized WEB3 remains a much talked-about promise; it was to provide additional boost to CRYPTOS (see Cover Story in Part 1). Backlash from high-tech and crypto collapses may delay some developments and there may be several boom-bust cycles ahead as faced by Web1 (1990s- ) and Web2 (2000s- ). For venture-capitalists, a new TOKENOMICS is in play and their payouts can be within a couple of years (VCs get paid in tokens and can cash out when tokens go live on exchanges rather than waiting for IPOs or acquisitions). There is vagueness in what is Web3, and many adventurous entrepreneurs are exploiting that (it can be whatever you want to hear). Future blockchain transactions may involve processing fees that may support their development and valuations. There may also be decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) that may offer voice and vote on policy matter to their members. Much of the secrecy offered/promised by cryptos may be gone. There will be regulatory hurdles for issues related to money and securities. There are some inherent contradictions. For a while, Web2 and Web3 may coexist, or there may be transitional Web2.5.
Pg 26: TIPs for retirement investors include buy the dips, be in the market, use dollar cost averaging (DCA), Roth Conversions, I-Bonds (current rate is 9.62% but annual limit is $10K/person or trust), rebalance, diversification, sound financial planning. New investors can start with target-date funds (TDFs), target-risk funds (static/ strategic conservative/ moderate/ aggressive allocations), robo-advisors and then move on to other types of investment vehicles.
Pg 30: FUNDS. Kari MONTANUS of mid-cap (deep) value CMUAX (ER 1.13; Morningstar 4*, Neutral; she previously comanaged large-cap value CSVZX) looks for some catalyst for change and tries to avoid value traps. Fund is concentrated with 45-50 stocks. Holdings may be kept even if they become large-caps.
Pg 32: INCOME INVESTING. Investors have preferred dividends over buybacks; mentioned are BKR, MMM, MCD, MDT, HBAN, IBM, DUK. The so-called shareholder-yield (dividend yield + buyback yield) hasn’t caught on. Global dividends were up +11.1% in 2022/Q1 vs -5% for 2021/Q1; for 2022, global dividends may be up +7.1% in local currencies.
Pg 33, ECONOMY. Soft-landing or hard-landing/recession? The economic data are pointing to SLOWDOWN – home sales, household savings, PMI, jobless claims, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, business inventories, layoffs, consumer confidence, rents/owners’-rent-equivalents. Rising fed fund RATES and QT combo will result in strong monetary tightening. A way out may be for the FED to just move its average inflation target from +2% to, say, +4%, so say several strategists and economists (YARDENI, own firm; ROMER, NYU; El-Erian, Allianz). Fed’s favorite inflation indicator PCE already lags others, and it is down to +4.9%, not far from +4%.
Pg 34, TECH TRADER. Cloud data management company Snowflake (SNOW; 09/2020 IPO at $120) peaked at $405 in 11/2021 and recently was briefly below its IPO price. Its big investors include BRK and CRM. If you missed the IPO, and its wild roller-coaster ride, it may now be time to buy it.
Pg 62: OTHER VOICES. Ben BERNANKE, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Bernanke suggests several factors that caused the FED/FOMC to delay its policy responses: 1) New flexible AVERAGE inflation targeting (FAIT; to be reviewed in 2024-25), 2) new policy of avoiding preemptive responses to strong LABOR markets, 3) distorted/scrambled labor market data during the PANDEMIC and post-pandemic, 4) initial Fed/FOMC belief that the inflation was TRANSITORY, but it turned out not to be. Russia-Ukraine war added additional complications and disruptions. He suggests that FAIT would prove to be fine but that new measures/tools be developed for assessing the labor markets. His new book, 21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve from the Great Inflation to Covid-19, 05/2022.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Big Bang, Facebook (“at”yogibearbull), Twitter (“at”YBB_Finance).