Post by Admin/YBB on Dec 4, 2021 10:14:53 GMT -6
Pg 12-13.
REVIEW. Some of Andy WARHOL’s works were selling as NFTs at Miami Art Basel fair. NFTs are now $10.7 billion market.
PREVIEW. With 3 new board members after the proxy battle last year, Exxon Mobil/XOM is becoming greener. It will reduce capex in high-carbon businesses, increase capex in low-carbon businesses and reduce emissions in its E&P operations.
DATA THIS WEEK. Consumer credit on TUESDAY; JOLTS report on WEDNESDAY; weekly initial jobless claims on THURSDAY; UM consumer confidence, Treasury budget, CPI (+6.7% y-o-y), core CPI (+4.8% y-o-y) on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Twitter (TWTR; P/S 4.5; new CEO Parag AGRAWAL replaced cofounder/CEO Jack DORSEY who resigned via a tweet (to focus on his other company Square/Block); stock has fallen but is attractive on reorganization and new focus on growth (ads, revenues, new products); activists Silver Lake, Elliott Management; pg 16);
3 clean-energy/biofuel stocks (DAR (joint-venture with VLO), NTOIY, CLMT; converting agricultural and animal products (oils, greases) to supplemental fuels; wide possibilities beyond corn or sugarcane based ethanol; pg 18);
Japanese videogame giant Nintendo (NTDOY; fwd P/E 15; yet to capitalize on the hot metaverse angle but virtual worlds are not new to it; sales decline due to semi chips shortages; growing subscription model, mobile and online videogames, while console videogames remain strong; reviving Mario franchise; pg 19);
small-cap REIT UMH (yield 3.2%; fwd P/FFO 23.1; 127 manufactured-home communities in 10 states include new or rehabbed communities; average occupancy rate 86% (low); affordable housing; financing programs available via Freddie Mac; proposals for 1st time homebuyers pending in DC; will re-fi preferreds at lower rates; stakes in other REITs including MNR (to be acquired by ILPT); competitors ELS, CVCO, SUI; pg 26).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 11: FOLLOWUP. China may recertify Boeing 737 MAX by the yearend; deliveries may begin by 2022/Q1. This should be good for Boeing/BA stock that has been hurt by grounding of 737 MAX after 2 accidents (03/2019, 11/2020) and then the collapse in demand from the pandemic.
Pg 15: Dr Peter MARKS, the FDA official in-charge of Covid-19 vaccine reviews, on the new Covid-19-Omicron. This is a more transmissible variant with many mutants. Updated mRNA vaccines (from BioNTech+Pfizer, Moderna) can be ready by April, if necessary (the worst case). The current vaccinations may provide some protections, and if so, the current booster programs would be enhanced (some reported cases so far have been for fully vaccinated, but the illnesses have been mild). A new Omicron-specific boosters may be required. New human trials would be quicker and for smaller groups and the new data would be used in conjunction with the existing data from larger older trials.
Pg 27, 100 YEARS OF BARRON’S reviews the role Japanese attack on PEARL HARBOR (1941) played in the rise of the US MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL complex. In late 1930s, the US armed forces were on par with those of Portugal and Netherlands but that was to be changed forever. America’s RISE began with its entry into WW II. LABOR strikes were called off and AMERICANS rushed to enlist. Within a month, the US BUSINESSES joined the US war efforts under the Production Czar Donald NELSON, a former Sears executive. Lot of domestic production shifted to war production. WOMEN joined the workforce as MEN (and many women) went to war fronts. Between 1941-45, the US PRODUCED 300,000 military aircrafts, 10 battleships, 211 submarines, 88,000 tanks, 12.5 million rifles, and the atomic bomb that ended the WW II. POST WW II, lessons learned were applied to civilian production, and American companies took their products abroad. The economic boom lasted through the 1950s. TODAY the US spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, has 750 overseas bases in 80 countries, and has 36% share of global arms exports. BUT after several forever wars and huge costs of this “empire”, the sentiment is shifting. The AMERICAN CENTURY started with a bang but may end with a whimper.
Pg 28: Kathleen McCARRAGHER and Natasha KUHLKIN of large-cap growth HCAIX look for market leaders with competitive advantages and hold them for several years for compounding earnings. Fund is concentrated with top 10 holdings accounting for 46.3%. They are watching inflation as it can affect profit margins and company valuations.
Pg 30: FUNDS. Several funds (CHGX, ZERO.uk, SESG.it; special carbon-neutral classes of BTCC.ca, ETHH.ca) are claiming to be CARBON-NEUTRAL, meaning that some of their portfolio companies offset carbon emissions by other portfolio companies. However, the terminology is vague and not standardized, there are variety of related technologies, and calculations for carbon accounting may be fuzzy. But the thought is that something is better than nothing.
Pg 31: TECH TRADER. Columnist SAVITZ is turning from METAVERSE skeptic to believer. This was due to his recent experience with the cycling app Zwift and a ride through the land of Watopia. Now he sees a vast potential for metaverse. Related stocks are RBLX, U, MTTR (a SPAC merger) and semis NVDA, QCOM (well, lot more chips will be needed but let this chips shortage era pass first).
Pg 33: ECONOMY. JOBS report had a mixed message – a miss on new jobs (employer survey) but a drop in the unemployment rate (household survey). Did some people just call themselves self-employed than unemployed? The Fed Chair POWELL said that the next FOMC meeting will discuss winding down QE sooner (by March?). We know what comes next, the RATE hikes. And all this regardless of jobs or Covid-19-Omicron? Where did the Fed put go? The fed fund futures market didn’t have time to react to all this yet. But stay tuned.
Pg 70: OTHER VOICES. Kelly Ann SHAW, Hogan Lovells (a global law firm), formerly WH International Economic Affairs and the NEC. CHINA is moving to bolster its Asian and global strategies by going beyond its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by joining CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a much-revised TPP) and RCEP (Regional Cooperation Economic Council). The US on the other hand is now focused on USMCA (US, Mexico, Canada) and bilateral and other mini-deals as some of the bigger multinational deals cannot address the US concerns of labor, environment, state-owned/controlled enterprises. Shaw suggests that the US should change course and find a way to join CPTPP, etc.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None
REVIEW. Some of Andy WARHOL’s works were selling as NFTs at Miami Art Basel fair. NFTs are now $10.7 billion market.
PREVIEW. With 3 new board members after the proxy battle last year, Exxon Mobil/XOM is becoming greener. It will reduce capex in high-carbon businesses, increase capex in low-carbon businesses and reduce emissions in its E&P operations.
DATA THIS WEEK. Consumer credit on TUESDAY; JOLTS report on WEDNESDAY; weekly initial jobless claims on THURSDAY; UM consumer confidence, Treasury budget, CPI (+6.7% y-o-y), core CPI (+4.8% y-o-y) on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Twitter (TWTR; P/S 4.5; new CEO Parag AGRAWAL replaced cofounder/CEO Jack DORSEY who resigned via a tweet (to focus on his other company Square/Block); stock has fallen but is attractive on reorganization and new focus on growth (ads, revenues, new products); activists Silver Lake, Elliott Management; pg 16);
3 clean-energy/biofuel stocks (DAR (joint-venture with VLO), NTOIY, CLMT; converting agricultural and animal products (oils, greases) to supplemental fuels; wide possibilities beyond corn or sugarcane based ethanol; pg 18);
Japanese videogame giant Nintendo (NTDOY; fwd P/E 15; yet to capitalize on the hot metaverse angle but virtual worlds are not new to it; sales decline due to semi chips shortages; growing subscription model, mobile and online videogames, while console videogames remain strong; reviving Mario franchise; pg 19);
small-cap REIT UMH (yield 3.2%; fwd P/FFO 23.1; 127 manufactured-home communities in 10 states include new or rehabbed communities; average occupancy rate 86% (low); affordable housing; financing programs available via Freddie Mac; proposals for 1st time homebuyers pending in DC; will re-fi preferreds at lower rates; stakes in other REITs including MNR (to be acquired by ILPT); competitors ELS, CVCO, SUI; pg 26).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 11: FOLLOWUP. China may recertify Boeing 737 MAX by the yearend; deliveries may begin by 2022/Q1. This should be good for Boeing/BA stock that has been hurt by grounding of 737 MAX after 2 accidents (03/2019, 11/2020) and then the collapse in demand from the pandemic.
Pg 15: Dr Peter MARKS, the FDA official in-charge of Covid-19 vaccine reviews, on the new Covid-19-Omicron. This is a more transmissible variant with many mutants. Updated mRNA vaccines (from BioNTech+Pfizer, Moderna) can be ready by April, if necessary (the worst case). The current vaccinations may provide some protections, and if so, the current booster programs would be enhanced (some reported cases so far have been for fully vaccinated, but the illnesses have been mild). A new Omicron-specific boosters may be required. New human trials would be quicker and for smaller groups and the new data would be used in conjunction with the existing data from larger older trials.
Pg 27, 100 YEARS OF BARRON’S reviews the role Japanese attack on PEARL HARBOR (1941) played in the rise of the US MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL complex. In late 1930s, the US armed forces were on par with those of Portugal and Netherlands but that was to be changed forever. America’s RISE began with its entry into WW II. LABOR strikes were called off and AMERICANS rushed to enlist. Within a month, the US BUSINESSES joined the US war efforts under the Production Czar Donald NELSON, a former Sears executive. Lot of domestic production shifted to war production. WOMEN joined the workforce as MEN (and many women) went to war fronts. Between 1941-45, the US PRODUCED 300,000 military aircrafts, 10 battleships, 211 submarines, 88,000 tanks, 12.5 million rifles, and the atomic bomb that ended the WW II. POST WW II, lessons learned were applied to civilian production, and American companies took their products abroad. The economic boom lasted through the 1950s. TODAY the US spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, has 750 overseas bases in 80 countries, and has 36% share of global arms exports. BUT after several forever wars and huge costs of this “empire”, the sentiment is shifting. The AMERICAN CENTURY started with a bang but may end with a whimper.
Pg 28: Kathleen McCARRAGHER and Natasha KUHLKIN of large-cap growth HCAIX look for market leaders with competitive advantages and hold them for several years for compounding earnings. Fund is concentrated with top 10 holdings accounting for 46.3%. They are watching inflation as it can affect profit margins and company valuations.
Pg 30: FUNDS. Several funds (CHGX, ZERO.uk, SESG.it; special carbon-neutral classes of BTCC.ca, ETHH.ca) are claiming to be CARBON-NEUTRAL, meaning that some of their portfolio companies offset carbon emissions by other portfolio companies. However, the terminology is vague and not standardized, there are variety of related technologies, and calculations for carbon accounting may be fuzzy. But the thought is that something is better than nothing.
Pg 31: TECH TRADER. Columnist SAVITZ is turning from METAVERSE skeptic to believer. This was due to his recent experience with the cycling app Zwift and a ride through the land of Watopia. Now he sees a vast potential for metaverse. Related stocks are RBLX, U, MTTR (a SPAC merger) and semis NVDA, QCOM (well, lot more chips will be needed but let this chips shortage era pass first).
Pg 33: ECONOMY. JOBS report had a mixed message – a miss on new jobs (employer survey) but a drop in the unemployment rate (household survey). Did some people just call themselves self-employed than unemployed? The Fed Chair POWELL said that the next FOMC meeting will discuss winding down QE sooner (by March?). We know what comes next, the RATE hikes. And all this regardless of jobs or Covid-19-Omicron? Where did the Fed put go? The fed fund futures market didn’t have time to react to all this yet. But stay tuned.
Pg 70: OTHER VOICES. Kelly Ann SHAW, Hogan Lovells (a global law firm), formerly WH International Economic Affairs and the NEC. CHINA is moving to bolster its Asian and global strategies by going beyond its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by joining CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a much-revised TPP) and RCEP (Regional Cooperation Economic Council). The US on the other hand is now focused on USMCA (US, Mexico, Canada) and bilateral and other mini-deals as some of the bigger multinational deals cannot address the US concerns of labor, environment, state-owned/controlled enterprises. Shaw suggests that the US should change course and find a way to join CPTPP, etc.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None