Post by Admin/YBB on Nov 6, 2021 8:23:19 GMT -6
Pg 12-13.
REVIEW. Common issues cited in Q3 earnings calls were INFLATION and SUPPY-CHAIN disruptions. DEMAND was strong but often the products were not available to sell.
PREVIEW. Facebook/FB renaming/rebranding as META should benefit cryptos (individual; virtual communities; tokens MANA, SAND, WILD, TLM; related businesses, COIN, etc).
DATA THIS WEEK. PPI, small business optimism index on TUESDAY; CPI, wholesale inventories on WEDNESDAY; UM consumer sentiment, JOLTS report on FRIDAY.
CLOSED. US bond market closed on THURSDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Insurer Alleghany (Y; no dividends but special dividends with the last one in 2020; fwd P/E 14.1 (2021), 9.7 (2022); P/B 1; like mini-BRK; businesses include P&C insurance, reinsurance and noninsurance businesses such as steel fabrication, toys, funeral products, etc; pg 15);
gene therapy (VERV, RGNX, KRYS, TNYA; pg 16);
Blade Air Mobility (BLDE; May SPAC merger; electrical helicopters/eVTOLs rideshares; but unlike cars/taxis, air traffic is heavily regulated/controlled by the FAA; BLDE bought Trinity Air Medical, an organ transplant transportation company; newer competition in this area is from other SPAC mergers JOBY, ACHR, LILM, but BLDE has a better chance to become profitable before its cash runs out; pg 19).
BEARISH. Zillow (Z; .got burned with aggressive program for house-flipping – first announced postponement of the program, then announced discontinuation, very poorly handled; competitors are doing OK (RDFN, OPEN, OPAD); pg 14).
Pg 11: FOLLOWUP. Future EV maker Rivian/RIVN will have IPO at valuation of $64 billion (more than the current market value of Honda/HMC). Although it has no sales yet, it is backed by Ford/F, Amazon/AMZN (with advance orders for 100,000), etc and may become #2 in EVs (Tesla/TSLA is #1 in EVs but a solid #2 has yet to emerge and there are several contenders). Its planned lineup includes R1T pickup and R1S SUV.
Pg 25: 100 YEARS OF BARRON’S revisits the tug of war between the CAPITALISTS and LABOR, with labor now having an edge due to Covid-19 related circumstances. The winning hand of capitalists in 1920s was followed by a reversal in 1930s (Wagner Act, 1935). Labor’s upper hand peaked in the post-WW II era when ORGANIZED labor’s actions started to create political backlash against it (Taft-Hartley, 1947). But the chaos and the power of labor continued until it was crushed in 1981 (with the firing of 10,000 air traffic controllers who had walked out). Labor unions had their historically low point in 2020. But what emerged from Covid-19 was workers acting in their own interests asserting themselves (by just staying home and not showing up for work), and not through labor unions although those may comeback too, as several labor strikes now show.
Pg 26: FUNDS. C.T. FITZPATRICK, founder, CEO, CIO of Vulcan Value Partners (large-cap VVPLX, small-cap VVPSX) looks for high-quality value stocks with some catalysts. Stocks on firm’s buy list are typically expensive but are bought opportunistically when they selloff due to temporary/transient issues. Both funds are concentrated and have high ERs of 1.08%and 1.26%, respectively. He likes fintech, real estate services, cloud-businesses, online ad businesses, etc.
Pg 28: FUNDS. The 2021 UN COP26 in Scotland has focused global attention on CLIMATE issues. Several countries have announced ambitious goals for NET-ZERO CARBON and those will drive huge ENERGY TRANSITIONS. According to M*, there are 636 climate-related funds globally and their AUMs have grown rapidly to $275 billion; the US market share is only 10% (same as China) vs 78% for Europe (so, only 2% for all others?). Examples include low-carbon ETF CRBN, carbon-credit-futures ETF KRBN, clean energy ETF ACES, green building ETF GBLD, environment and alternative energy OEF FSLEX.
Pg 29: TECH TRADER. Pandemic stay/work-at-home trend is over. After recent earnings reports, there was damage to educational-tech (CHGG, COUR), videoconferencing (ZM), TV streaming (ROKU), home-fitness (PTON). Rebounding were ridesharing (UBER, LYFT), travel (ABNB, BKNG, EXPE), fitness facilities (PLNT), entertainment (LYV). One pandemic trend remains strong – cloud businesses (CRM, SNOW, OKTA, BILL, DOCN). Earlier Q3 earnings reports for MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL have already shown strength in this area.
Pg 30: INCOME. Widely held dividend large-caps include ABBV, MS, CSCO, MDT, BAC, WFC.
Pg 31: JOBS report was good but there were ISSUES under the hood. Labor force participation remains low; job growth has slowed (workers are not returning to work as expected); wage growth is worrisome; there may be labor capacity constraints.
Pg 32: Mellody HOBSON, Ariel Investments. Ariel is a minority-owned firm that emphasizes small/mid-caps, value, special situations, ESG factors; it is also actively involved with its portfolio companies. Development of career pipelines for minorities is important and some changes will take time. Financial literacy for the masses is an important goal; personal finance should be integrated into curricula at all levels. Her husband is George LUCAS, film producer and director.
Pg 34: OTHER VOICES. Edward YARDENI, Yardeni Research. It is good times for many, but many are also suffering/struggling. However, details matter: Hourly wages are rising; personal consumption is rising; workers have gained upper hand on many job issues; business profits are up. Some details get lost in big macro numbers and politicians shouldn’t act impulsively.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None
REVIEW. Common issues cited in Q3 earnings calls were INFLATION and SUPPY-CHAIN disruptions. DEMAND was strong but often the products were not available to sell.
PREVIEW. Facebook/FB renaming/rebranding as META should benefit cryptos (individual; virtual communities; tokens MANA, SAND, WILD, TLM; related businesses, COIN, etc).
DATA THIS WEEK. PPI, small business optimism index on TUESDAY; CPI, wholesale inventories on WEDNESDAY; UM consumer sentiment, JOLTS report on FRIDAY.
CLOSED. US bond market closed on THURSDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Insurer Alleghany (Y; no dividends but special dividends with the last one in 2020; fwd P/E 14.1 (2021), 9.7 (2022); P/B 1; like mini-BRK; businesses include P&C insurance, reinsurance and noninsurance businesses such as steel fabrication, toys, funeral products, etc; pg 15);
gene therapy (VERV, RGNX, KRYS, TNYA; pg 16);
Blade Air Mobility (BLDE; May SPAC merger; electrical helicopters/eVTOLs rideshares; but unlike cars/taxis, air traffic is heavily regulated/controlled by the FAA; BLDE bought Trinity Air Medical, an organ transplant transportation company; newer competition in this area is from other SPAC mergers JOBY, ACHR, LILM, but BLDE has a better chance to become profitable before its cash runs out; pg 19).
BEARISH. Zillow (Z; .got burned with aggressive program for house-flipping – first announced postponement of the program, then announced discontinuation, very poorly handled; competitors are doing OK (RDFN, OPEN, OPAD); pg 14).
Pg 11: FOLLOWUP. Future EV maker Rivian/RIVN will have IPO at valuation of $64 billion (more than the current market value of Honda/HMC). Although it has no sales yet, it is backed by Ford/F, Amazon/AMZN (with advance orders for 100,000), etc and may become #2 in EVs (Tesla/TSLA is #1 in EVs but a solid #2 has yet to emerge and there are several contenders). Its planned lineup includes R1T pickup and R1S SUV.
Pg 25: 100 YEARS OF BARRON’S revisits the tug of war between the CAPITALISTS and LABOR, with labor now having an edge due to Covid-19 related circumstances. The winning hand of capitalists in 1920s was followed by a reversal in 1930s (Wagner Act, 1935). Labor’s upper hand peaked in the post-WW II era when ORGANIZED labor’s actions started to create political backlash against it (Taft-Hartley, 1947). But the chaos and the power of labor continued until it was crushed in 1981 (with the firing of 10,000 air traffic controllers who had walked out). Labor unions had their historically low point in 2020. But what emerged from Covid-19 was workers acting in their own interests asserting themselves (by just staying home and not showing up for work), and not through labor unions although those may comeback too, as several labor strikes now show.
Pg 26: FUNDS. C.T. FITZPATRICK, founder, CEO, CIO of Vulcan Value Partners (large-cap VVPLX, small-cap VVPSX) looks for high-quality value stocks with some catalysts. Stocks on firm’s buy list are typically expensive but are bought opportunistically when they selloff due to temporary/transient issues. Both funds are concentrated and have high ERs of 1.08%and 1.26%, respectively. He likes fintech, real estate services, cloud-businesses, online ad businesses, etc.
Pg 28: FUNDS. The 2021 UN COP26 in Scotland has focused global attention on CLIMATE issues. Several countries have announced ambitious goals for NET-ZERO CARBON and those will drive huge ENERGY TRANSITIONS. According to M*, there are 636 climate-related funds globally and their AUMs have grown rapidly to $275 billion; the US market share is only 10% (same as China) vs 78% for Europe (so, only 2% for all others?). Examples include low-carbon ETF CRBN, carbon-credit-futures ETF KRBN, clean energy ETF ACES, green building ETF GBLD, environment and alternative energy OEF FSLEX.
Pg 29: TECH TRADER. Pandemic stay/work-at-home trend is over. After recent earnings reports, there was damage to educational-tech (CHGG, COUR), videoconferencing (ZM), TV streaming (ROKU), home-fitness (PTON). Rebounding were ridesharing (UBER, LYFT), travel (ABNB, BKNG, EXPE), fitness facilities (PLNT), entertainment (LYV). One pandemic trend remains strong – cloud businesses (CRM, SNOW, OKTA, BILL, DOCN). Earlier Q3 earnings reports for MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL have already shown strength in this area.
Pg 30: INCOME. Widely held dividend large-caps include ABBV, MS, CSCO, MDT, BAC, WFC.
Pg 31: JOBS report was good but there were ISSUES under the hood. Labor force participation remains low; job growth has slowed (workers are not returning to work as expected); wage growth is worrisome; there may be labor capacity constraints.
Pg 32: Mellody HOBSON, Ariel Investments. Ariel is a minority-owned firm that emphasizes small/mid-caps, value, special situations, ESG factors; it is also actively involved with its portfolio companies. Development of career pipelines for minorities is important and some changes will take time. Financial literacy for the masses is an important goal; personal finance should be integrated into curricula at all levels. Her husband is George LUCAS, film producer and director.
Pg 34: OTHER VOICES. Edward YARDENI, Yardeni Research. It is good times for many, but many are also suffering/struggling. However, details matter: Hourly wages are rising; personal consumption is rising; workers have gained upper hand on many job issues; business profits are up. Some details get lost in big macro numbers and politicians shouldn’t act impulsively.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None