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Post by Admin/YBB on Apr 21, 2022 5:28:49 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/20/22
For the week ending on 4/20/22, the Survey improved a bit but remained deeply negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (43.9%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (18.9%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (37.3%; above average). It is now 8+ weeks for the Russia-Ukraine war where the focus has shifted on the East (Donbas) and South. Investor concerns were inflation, aggressive Fed, earnings, war. In the Survey week, stocks were mixed (growth down, value/cyclicals up), bonds down, oil down, gold down.
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
03-17-22 22.47% 27.75% 49.78%
03-24-22 32.80% 31.75% 35.45%
03-31-22 31.88% 40.58% 27.54%
04-07-22 24.71% 33.91% 41.38%
04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42%
04-20-22 18.9% 37.3% 43.9%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 37.89% 31.45% 30.65%
STD 10.04% 08.32% 09.53%
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Post by Admin/YBB on Apr 28, 2022 3:45:54 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/27/22 For the week ending on 4/27/22, the Survey was very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (59.4%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (16.4%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (24.2%; low). Investor concerns remained Russia-Ukraine war (now 9+ weeks with escalation of verbal threats), high market volatility (VIX, VXN), earnings, inflation, the Fed (FOMC next week). In the Survey week, stocks were down, bonds were up a bit, oil down, gold down, dollar up. Date Bullish Neutral Bearish 03-24-22 32.80% 31.75% 35.45% 03-31-22 31.88% 40.58% 27.54% 04-07-22 24.71% 33.91% 41.38% 04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42% 04-21-22 18.87% 37.26% 43.87% 04-27-22 16.4% 24.2% 59.4%Observations over life of survey Avg 37.88% 31.46% 30.66% STD 10.05% 08.32% 09.54% Now accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at" yogibearbull), Twitter ("at" YBB_Finance). Edit/Add: Q1 GDP growth was NEGATIVE. Either the market hasn't had time to grasp that, or it is celebrating. Now Q2 GDP growth will likely be negative too. That is spelled RECESSION. www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html
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Post by Admin/YBB on May 5, 2022 4:08:23 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/4/22
For the week ending on 5/4/22, the Survey remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (52.9%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (20.3%; very low); bullish became the middle sentiment (26.9%; low from very low last week). Investor concerns remained high inflation; supply-chain disruptions; high market volatility (VIX, VXN); the Fed (the FOMC announced 50-bps hike with at least 2 more 50-bps hikes to follow but any 75-bps hikes were ruled out; balance sheet reduction plan of $47.5-95.0 billion/mo); Russia-Ukraine war (now 10+ weeks); Covid-19 spread & lockdowns in China. In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up (there was a huge Fed-"relief" rally on Wednesday), bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar down. #AAII, #Sentiment, #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bullish
03-31-22 31.88% 40.58% 27.54%
04-07-22 24.71% 33.91% 41.38%
04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42%
04-21-22 18.87% 37.26% 43.87%
04-28-22 16.44% 24.20% 59.36%
05-04-22 26.9% 20.3% 52.9%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 37.87% 31.45% 30.68%
STD 10.06% 08.32% 09.56%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on May 12, 2022 4:03:52 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/11/22
For the week ending on 5/11/22, Sentiment remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (49.0%; very high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (24.3%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (26.6%; below average). Investor concerns included high inflation; high market volatility (VIX, VXN); supply-chain disruptions; crypto-crash (there is correlation between cryptos and speculative stocks); Russia-Ukraine war (now 11+ weeks). In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), almost everything was down (stocks, bonds, oil, gold) with the exception of dollar. #AAII, #Sentiment, #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
04-07-22 24.71% 33.91% 41.38%
04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42%
04-21-22 18.87% 37.26% 43.87%
04-28-22 16.44% 24.20% 59.36%
05-05-22 26.87% 20.26% 52.86%
05-11-22 24.3% 26.6% 49.0%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 37.86% 31.45% 30.69%
STD 10.06% 08.32% 09.57%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on May 19, 2022 3:45:20 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/18/22
For the week ending on 5/18/22, the Survey remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (50.4%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (23.6%; low); bullish became the middle sentiment (26.0%, low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions (the two have become intertwined; retail was trashed this week); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (12+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), there were huge market movements but the result was that stocks were mixed, bonds down a bit, oil up, gold down, dollar flat. Note - A new Greed-Fear display on the AAII Sentiment Survey page that is based simply on Bull-Bear Spread seems to have colors & labels flipped; the AAII has been informed. #AAII, #Sentiment, #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
04-14-22 15.84% 35.75% 48.42%
04-21-22 18.87% 37.26% 43.87%
04-28-22 16.44% 24.20% 59.36%
05-05-22 26.87% 20.26% 52.86%
05-12-22 24.32% 26.64% 49.03%
05-18-22 26.0% 23.6% 50.4%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 37.86% 31.44% 30.70%
STD 10.06% 08.32% 09.58%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on May 26, 2022 4:15:09 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/25/22
For the week ending on 5/25/22, the Survey became more negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (53.5%; very high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (19.8%; very low); neutral became the middle sentiment (26.7%, low); Bull-Bear Spread fell to -33.7% (a column is added in the table below). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (13+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), there were huge market movements with the results that stocks, bonds, oil, gold were all up (for a change!) but dollar declined. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
04-21-22 18.87% 37.26% 43.87% -25.0%
04-28-22 16.44% 24.20% 59.36% -42.9%
05-05-22 26.87% 20.26% 52.86% -26.0%
05-12-22 24.32% 26.64% 49.03% -24.7%
05-19-22 25.97% 23.64% 50.39% -24.4%
05-25-22 19.8% 26.7% 53.5% -33.7%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 37.85% 31.44% 30.71%
STD 10.06% 08.32% 09.59%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jun 2, 2022 4:37:21 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/1/22
For the week ending on 6/1/22, a huge REBOUND in Sentiment: Bearish still remained the top sentiment (37.1%) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (30.9%); bullish became the middle sentiment (32.0%); Bull-Bear Spread was only -5.1%. With all sentiments in 30s, future flip-flops are expected. Investor concerns still included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (14+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
04-28-22 16.44% 24.20% 59.36% -42.9%
05-05-22 26.87% 20.26% 52.86% -26.0%
05-12-22 24.32% 26.64% 49.03% -24.7%
05-19-22 25.97% 23.64% 50.39% -24.4%
05-26-22 19.85% 26.65% 53.50% -33.6%
06-01-22 32.0% 30.9% 37.1% -5.1%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.84% 31.44% 30.72% +7.1%
STD 10.07% 08.32% 09.60% +17.8%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jun 9, 2022 4:42:07 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/8/22
For the week ending on 6/8/22, Sentiment reverted to very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (46.9%; very high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (21.0%; very low); neutral became the middle sentiment (32.1%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -25.9% (low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (how many hikes; whether its +2% average inflation target would be moved; the FOMC meeting next week); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (15+ weeks; no longer in headlines). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil up sharply, gold up, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
05-05-22 26.87% 20.26% 52.86% -26.0%
05-12-22 24.32% 26.64% 49.03% -24.7%
05-19-22 25.97% 23.64% 50.39% -24.4%
05-26-22 19.85% 26.65% 53.50% -33.6%
06-02-22 32.02% 30.92% 37.06% -5.0%
06-08-22 21.0% 32.1% 46.9% -25.9%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.84% 31.44% 30.73% 7.1%
STD 10.07% 08.32% 09.60% 17.8%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jun 16, 2022 5:09:56 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
For the week ending on 6/15/22, Sentiment was extremely negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (58.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.4%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (22.2%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -38.9% (very low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (+75 bps hike was "leaked" to WSJ on Monday; expect more 50-75 bps hikes); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (16+ weeks; no longer in headlines). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks, bonds, oil, gold were all down, dollar was up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 05-12-22 24.32% 26.64% 49.03% -24.7%
05-19-22 25.97% 23.64% 50.39% -24.4%
05-26-22 19.85% 26.65% 53.50% -33.6%
06-02-22 32.02% 30.92% 37.06% -5.0%
06-09-22 21.02% 32.10% 46.88% -25.9%
06-15-22 19.4% 22.22% 58.3% -38.9%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.83% 31.44% 30.74% +7.1%
STD 10.07% 08.32% 09.60% 17.8%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jun 23, 2022 5:35:36 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/22/22
For the week ending on 6/22/22, Sentiment remained extremely negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (59.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (18.2%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (22.5%; low); Bull-Bear Spread was -41.1% (very low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (more 50-75 bps hikes & QT); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (17+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down (sharply), gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
05-19-22 25.97% 23.64% 50.39% -24.4%
05-26-22 19.85% 26.65% 53.50% -33.6%
06-02-22 32.02% 30.92% 37.06% -5.0%
06-09-22 21.02% 32.10% 46.88% -25.9%
06-16-22 19.44% 22.22% 58.33% -38.9%
06-22-22 18.2% 22.5% 59.3% -41.1%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 37.82% 31.43% 30.75% +7.1%
STD 10.08% 08.32% 09.62% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jun 25, 2022 13:40:06 GMT -6
UM Sentiment and AAII Sentiment show similar patterns. Twitter LINKYBB Personal Finance (6/25/22) @ybb_Finance Replying to @williedelwiche #UMSentiment is monthly while #AAIISentiment is weekly. Would 4-week-MA or monthly samplings of AAII Sentiment data display better? Powell's reference to UM Sentiment in his 6/15/22 #FOMC press conference has suddenly caused a surge in interest in sentiment.
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jun 30, 2022 5:15:55 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/29/22
For the week ending on 6/29/22, Sentiment improved a bit but was very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (46.7%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (22.8%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (30.5%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -23.9% (very low; interestingly, it has good correlation with the UM Sentiment). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (18+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds up, oil up, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
05-26-22 19.85% 26.65% 53.50% -33.6% 06-02-22 32.02% 30.92% 37.06% -5.0% 06-09-22 21.02% 32.10% 46.88% -25.9% 06-16-22 19.44% 22.22% 58.33% -38.9% 06-23-22 18.20% 22.46% 59.34% -41.1% 06-29-22 22.8% 30.5% 46.7% -23.9%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.81% 31.43% 30.77% +7.0% STD 10.09% 08.32% 09.64% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 7, 2022 5:07:11 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/6/22
For the week ending on 7/6/22, Sentiment became extremely negative again: Bearish remained the top sentiment (52.8%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.4%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (27.8%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -33.4% (very low). Investor concerns included recession; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (19+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were flat-up, bonds up, oil collapsed, gold tanked, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
06-02-22 32.02% 30.92% 37.06% -5.0% 06-09-22 21.02% 32.10% 46.88% -25.9% 06-16-22 19.44% 22.22% 58.33% -38.9% 06-23-22 18.20% 22.46% 59.34% -41.1% 06-30-22 22.78% 30.52% 46.70% -23.9% 07-06-22 19.4% 27.8% 52.8% -33.4%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.80% 31.43% 30.78% +7.0% STD 10.09% 08.31% 09.65% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 14, 2022 4:32:20 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
For the week ending on 7/13/22, Sentiment remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (46.5%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (26.6%; low); bullish became the middle sentiment (26.9%; very low); Bull-Bear Spread was -19.6% (low). Investor concerns included recession; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (20+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down, gold flat, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
06-09-22 21.02% 32.10% 46.88% -25.9% 06-16-22 19.44% 22.22% 58.33% -38.9% 06-23-22 18.20% 22.46% 59.34% -41.1% 06-30-22 22.78% 30.52% 46.70% -23.9% 07-07-22 19.38% 27.81% 52.81% -33.4% 07-13-22 26.9% 26.6% 46.5% -19.6% Observations over life of survey Avg 37.79% 31.42% 30.79% +7.0% STD 10.10% 08.31% 09.66% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 21, 2022 4:06:49 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/20/22
For the week ending on 7/20/22, Sentiment remained very negative (despite improvement): Bearish remained the top sentiment (42.2%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (28.2%; below average); bullish became the middle sentiment (29.6%; low); Bull-Bear Spread was -12.6% (low; recent bottom 6/23/22). Investor concerns included recession; inflation & supply-chain disruptions (including natural gas supplies to Europe that did resume via Nord Stream 1 on Thursday Morning); the Fed/FOMC (next week); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (21+ weeks); geopolitical (UK, Italy, Sri Lanka, etc). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up sharply, bonds flat-down, oil up sharply, gold down sharply, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
06-09-22 21.02% 32.10% 46.88% -25.9% 06-16-22 19.44% 22.22% 58.33% -38.9% 06-23-22 18.20% 22.46% 59.34% -41.1% 06-30-22 22.78% 30.52% 46.70% -23.9% 07-07-22 19.38% 27.81% 52.81% -33.4% 07-14-22 26.89% 26.59% 46.53% -19.6% 02-20-22 29.6% 28.2% 42.2% -12.6%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.78% 31.42% 30.80% +7.0% STD 10.10% 08.31% 09.66% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
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