|
Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 28, 2022 4:53:28 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/27/22
For the week ending on 7/27/22, Sentiment continued to improve: Bearish remained the top sentiment (40.1%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (27.7%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (32.2%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -12.4% (low). Investor concerns included recession; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC (rate raised +75 bps; more hikes to come; QT continues); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (22+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 06-23-22 18.20% 22.46% 59.34% -41.1% 06-30-22 22.78% 30.52% 46.70% -23.9% 07-07-22 19.38% 27.81% 52.81% -33.4% 07-14-22 26.89% 26.59% 46.53% -19.6% 07-21-22 29.59% 28.22% 42.19% -12.6% 07-27-22 27.7% 32.2% 40.1% -12.6% Observations over life of survey Avg 37.78% 31.42% 30.80% +7.0% STD 10.10% 08.31% 09.66% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 28, 2022 16:57:06 GMT -6
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Aug 4, 2022 4:44:14 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/3/22
For the week ending on 8/3/22, Sentiment improved significantly: Bearish remained the top sentiment (38.9%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom (tie) sentiment (30.6%; below average); neutral remained the middle (tie) sentiment (30.6%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -8.3% (low). With all Sentiments in 30s (last times 1/5/22, 3/23/22, 6/1/22), future flip-flops in ordering are expected. There is widening belief that the worst is behind for the Sentiment and markets; mid-June may have been the worst. Investor concerns included recession/slowdown; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (23+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up sharply, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold up sharply, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
06-30-22 22.78% 30.52% 46.70% -23.9% 07-07-22 19.38% 27.81% 52.81% -33.4% 07-14-22 26.89% 26.59% 46.53% -19.6% 07-21-22 29.59% 28.22% 42.19% -12.6% 07-28-22 27.72% 32.18% 40.10% -12.4% 08-04-22 30.56% 30.56% 38.89% -08.3%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.77% 31.42% 30.81% +07.0% STD 10.09% 08.30% 09.66% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Aug 11, 2022 4:41:27 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22
For the week ending on 8/10/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (31.2%; average); bullish became the middle sentiment (32.2%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -4.5% (low). With all Sentiments still in 30s, future flip-flops in ordering are expected. The strong rally from mid-June lows is at an important juncture. Investor concerns included recession/slowdown; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (24+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down/flat, oil up, gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 07-07-22 19.38% 27.81% 52.81% -33.4% 07-14-22 26.89% 26.59% 46.53% -19.6% 07-21-22 29.59% 28.22% 42.19% -12.6% 07-28-22 27.72% 32.18% 40.10% -12.4% 08-04-22 30.56% 30.56% 38.89% -08.3% 08-11-22 32.15% 31.19% 36.66% -04.5% Observations over life of survey Avg 37.77% 31.42% 30.81% +7.0% STD 10.09% 08.30% 09.66% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Aug 18, 2022 6:06:55 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/17/22
For the week ending on 8/17/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (29.5%; below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (33.3%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -3.8% (below average). The strong stock rally from mid-June lows continued. Investor concerns: Recession/slowdown; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (25+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil down, gold up, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 07-14-22 26.89% 26.59% 46.53% -19.6% 07-21-22 29.59% 28.22% 42.19% -12.6% 07-28-22 27.72% 32.18% 40.10% -12.4% 08-04-22 30.56% 30.56% 38.89% -08.3% 08-11-22 32.15% 31.19% 36.66% -04.5% 08-18-22 33.33% 29.51% 37.15% -03.8%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.76% 31.42% 30.82% +06.9% STD 10.09% 08.30% 09.66% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Aug 25, 2022 4:46:31 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/24/22
For the week ending on 8/24/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (42.4%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (27.7%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (29.9%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -14.7% (low). Investor concerns: Recession/slowdown; inflation (more fiscal stimulus); supply-chain disruptions; the Fed Conf at Jackson Hole; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (26+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down sharply, bonds down, oil up sharply (OPEC put?), gold down, dollar up sharply. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 07-21-22 29.59% 28.22% 42.19% -12.6% 07-28-22 27.72% 32.18% 40.10% -12.4% 08-04-22 30.56% 30.56% 38.89% -8.3% 08-11-22 32.15% 31.19% 36.66% -4.5% 08-18-22 33.33% 29.51% 37.15% -3.8% 08-24-22 27.7% 29.9% 42.4% -14.7%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 37.76% 31.42% 30.82% +6.9% STD 10.09% 08.30% 09.66% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 1, 2022 5:21:36 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/31/22
For the week ending on 8/31/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (50.4%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (21.9%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (27.7%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -28.5% (very low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (27+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down sharply, bonds down, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 07-28-22 27.72% 32.18% 40.10% -12.4% 08-04-22 30.56% 30.56% 38.89% -08.3% 08-11-22 32.15% 31.19% 36.66% -04.5% 08-18-22 33.33% 29.51% 37.15% -03.8% 08-25-22 27.70% 29.92% 42.38% -14.7% 09-01-22 21.92% 27.67% 50.41% -28.5%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.75% 31.41% 30.84% +06.9% STD 10.09% 08.30% 09.67% 17.9%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 8, 2022 5:16:04 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/7/22 For the week ending on 9/7/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (53.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (18.1%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (28.7%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -35.2% (very low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (28+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were mixed (in spite of a big improvement on Wednesday), bonds down, oil down sharply (again), gold flat, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 08-04-22 30.56% 30.56% 38.89% -8.3% 08-11-22 32.15% 31.19% 36.66% -4.5% 08-18-22 33.33% 29.51% 37.15% -3.8% 08-25-22 27.70% 29.92% 42.38% -14.7% 09-01-22 21.92% 27.67% 50.41% -28.5% 09-07-22 18.1% 28.7% 53.3% -35.2% Observations over life of survey Avg 37.75% 31.41% 30.84% +6.9% STD 10.09% 08.30% 09.67% 17.9% Bearish sentiment has been very high in 2022 ( Twitter LINK) as this bar chart of the annual average of bearish sentiment (YTD to 9/3/22) shows pbs.twimg.com/media/Fbw77yWX0AAfcjg?format=png&name=900x900Edit/Add: 40-wMA of Bull-Bear Spread with 9/8/22 data, Twitter LINK2pbs.twimg.com/media/FcJU593agAAU7fE?format=png&name=medium Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 15, 2022 4:51:04 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/14/22For the week ending on 9/14/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (46.0%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (26.1%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (27.9%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -19.9% (very low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions (a damaging RR strike averted by a last-minute deal); the Fed; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (some positive developments on ground for Ukraine; Russian missile strike damaged a hydroelectric dam; 29+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds down, oil up sharply, gold down, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 08-11-22 32.15% 31.19% 36.66% -4.5% 08-18-22 33.33% 29.51% 37.15% -3.8% 08-25-22 27.70% 29.92% 42.38% -14.7% 09-01-22 21.92% 27.67% 50.41% -28.5% 09-08-22 18.07% 28.66% 53.27% -35.2% 09-14-22 26.1% 27.9% 46.0% -19.9%Observations over life of survey Avg 37.74% 31.41% 30.85% +6.9% STD 10.10% 08.29% 09.68% 18.0% Edit/Add: From Bespoke LINK www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/sentiment-contradicts-price-actionBull-Bear History media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/09/091522-AAII-3.pngWeeks of Negative Bull-Bear Spread media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/09/091522-AAII-3a.pngAccessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 22, 2022 5:05:45 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/21/22
For the week ending on 9/21/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (60.9%; extremely high; highest since 3/5/09) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (17.7%; extremely low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (21.4%; low); Bull-Bear Spread was -43.2% (extremely low; lowest since 3/5/09). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (+75 hike yesterday & 100-125 bps more hikes in 2022); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (partial mobilizations in Russia; 30+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down sharply, bonds down, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
08-18-22 33.33% 29.51% 37.15% -3.8% 08-25-22 27.70% 29.92% 42.38% -14.7% 09-01-22 21.92% 27.67% 50.41% -28.5% 09-08-22 18.07% 28.66% 53.27% -35.2% 09-15-22 26.13% 27.87% 45.99% -19.9% 09-21-22 17.7% 21.4% 60.9% -43.2%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.73% 31.41% 30.86% +6.9% STD 10.10% 08.29% 09.68% 18.0%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Sept 29, 2022 5:33:09 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/28/22
For the week ending on 9/28/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (60.8%; extremely high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (19.2%; extremely low); bullish became the middle sentiment (20.0%; extremely low); Bull-Bear Spread was -40.8% (extremely low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; the BOE suddenly did QE to support UK bonds & pound; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (sabotages in idle NS1 & NS2 pipelines; Russian annexations in Ukraine; 31+ weeks); geopolitical (political shift in Italy). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
08-25-22 27.70% 29.92% 42.38% -14.7% 09-01-22 21.92% 27.67% 50.41% -28.5% 09-08-22 18.07% 28.66% 53.27% -35.2% 09-15-22 26.13% 27.87% 45.99% -19.9% 09-22-22 17.73% 21.40% 60.87% -43.1% 09-29-22 19.95% 19.24% 60.81% -40.9%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.71% 31.40% 30.89% +06.8% STD 10.12% 08.30% 09.73% 18.0%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 6, 2022 5:21:15 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/5/22
For the week ending on 10/5/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (54.8%; extremely high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (21.3%; extremely low); bullish remained the middle sentiment (23.9%; extremely low); Bull-Bear Spread was -30.9% (extremely low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; US elections; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (32+ weeks); European banks; geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up (October dollar-relief rally?), bonds flat/down, oil up sharply (ahead of OPEC production cuts), gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
09-01-22 21.92% 27.67% 50.41% -28.5% 09-08-22 18.07% 28.66% 53.27% -35.2% 09-15-22 26.13% 27.87% 45.99% -19.9% 09-22-22 17.73% 21.40% 60.87% -43.1% 09-29-22 19.95% 19.24% 60.81% -40.9% 10-05-22 23.9% 21.3% 54.8% -30.9%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.71% 31.40% 30.89% +6.8% STD 10.12% 08.30% 09.73% 18.0%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 13, 2022 4:33:47 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/12/22
For the week ending on 10/12/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (55.9%; extremely high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (20.4%; extremely low); neutral became the middle sentiment (23.7%; extremely low); Bull-Bear Spread was -35.5% (extremely low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation (new data this week); supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; US elections; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (33+ weeks); European banks & UK pension funds; geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down sharply, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 09-08-22 18.07% 28.66% 53.27% -35.2% 09-15-22 26.13% 27.87% 45.99% -19.9% 09-22-22 17.73% 21.40% 60.87% -43.1% 09-29-22 19.95% 19.24% 60.81% -40.9% 10-06-22 23.92% 21.33% 54.76% -30.8% 10-12-22 20.4% 23.7% 55.9% -35.5%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.70% 31.39% 30.90% +6.8% STD 10.12% 08.30% 09.74% 18.0%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 20, 2022 4:33:37 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/19/22 For the week ending on 10/19/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (56.2%; extremely high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (21.2%; extremely low); bullish became the middle sentiment (22.6%; extremely low); Bull-Bear Spread was -33.6% (extremely low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; US elections; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (34+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 09-15-22 26.13% 27.87% 45.99% -19.9% 09-22-22 17.73% 21.40% 60.87% -43.1% 09-29-22 19.95% 19.24% 60.81% -40.9% 10-06-22 23.92% 21.33% 54.76% -30.8% 10-13-22 20.36% 23.71% 55.93% -35.6% 10-19-20 22.6% 21.2% 56.2% -33.6%Observations over life of survey Avg 37.69% 31.39% 30.92% +6.8% STD 10.12% 08.30% 09.76% 18.1% Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance). Edit/Add: Twitter LINK
|
|
|
Post by Admin/YBB on Oct 27, 2022 4:48:22 GMT -6
AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/26/22
For the week ending on 10/26/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (45.7%; extremely high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (26.6%; very low); neutral became the middle sentiment (27.7%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -19.1% (very low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; dollar; US elections; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (35+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up strongly, bonds up, oil up sharply, gold up, dollar down sharply (but still high; key now). #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread 09-22-22 17.73% 21.40% 60.87% -43.1% 09-29-22 19.95% 19.24% 60.81% -40.9% 10-06-22 23.92% 21.33% 54.76% -30.8% 10-13-22 20.36% 23.71% 55.93% -35.6% 10-20-22 22.60% 21.19% 56.21% -33.6% 10-27-22 26.6% 27.7% 45.7% -19.1%
Observations over life of survey Avg 37.69% 31.38% 30.93% +6.8% STD 10.13% 08.30% 09.77% 18.1%
Accessible from Morningstar (M*), Mutual Fund Observer (MFO), Facebook ("at"yogibearbull), Twitter ("at"YBB_Finance).
|
|