Post by Admin/YBB on Jul 3, 2021 9:34:08 GMT -6
Pg 8-9: FOMC Minutes on WEDNESDAY. G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Italy, FRIDAY-SATURDAY (July 9-10) (G-20 will be later in Italy, October 30-31)
REVIEW. A busy week for IPOs with 19 that included Chinese DIDI, DDL, CPOP and others (DNUT, etc).
PREVIEW. Plug Power (PLUG; fwd P/S 18) is a play on HYDROGEN fuel cells. It plans to move beyond the current forklift applications to heavy-duty trucks.
DATA THIS WEEK. ISM services PMI on TUESDAY; JOLTS report (9.3 million job openings), mortgage applications on WEDNESDAY; consumer credit, weekly initial jobless claims on THURSDAY; wholesale inventories on FRIDAY.
CLOSED. US on Monday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Johnson Controls (JCI; debt/EBITDA 2.9 (bit high); 60% revenue from HVAC products for smart-buildings, 40% from fire and security products; return-to-office (RTO) will boost demand for its products; energy efficiency also leads to reduction in carbon footprint; partnership with MSFT to develop related cloud-based systems; pg 11);
NCR (fwd P/E 17; makes point-of-sale systems (cash registers, checkout and self-checkout terminals), ATMs, ITMs; switching to more subscription-based model; hurt badly by pandemic but good post-pandemic rebound prospects; recently acquired Cardtronics (largest nonbank ATM operator); pg 12);
UK-based small-cap Genius Sports (GENI; P/S 13-20; public via SPAC merger; business is to provide game data to bookmakers and leagues (NFL, English & Scottish soccer leagues); legalized online sports betting is growing rapidly; pg 13);
European airlines (ICAGY, RYAAY, WZZZY; struggling AFLYY, DLAKY, NWARF; pg 19);
Porsche Automobil Holding (POAHY; fwd P/E 7; multiclass share structure; brands include VW, Audi, Porsche, Bently, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bugatti; EV push; pg 20).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 10: FOLLOWUP. A temporary victory for Facebook/FB as a federal court rejected lawsuits from the FTC and states that were related to antitrust and past acquisitions (but the FTC may refile). FB then went on attack by asking that the new FTC Chair Lina KHAN recuse herself from future FB cases citing her published writings. Unfortunately, more actions against Big Techs (including FB) are coming from the FTC, states and Congress (and that will trump the jurisdiction issues). The next FTC target is Amazon/AMZN’s acquisition of MGM Studios – the likely argument will be that AMZN is just too big now although there aren’t overlapping lines of businesses, but that may be a weak argument for the court (the US banks now shy away from M&A for this fear although they are not the biggest globally).
Pg 22: TECH TRADER. On Monday, July 5, Jeff BEZOS will hand over the CEO role to Andy JASSY (its AWS head); Bezos will remain Amazon/AMZN Chairman. Amazon’s bid for MGM Studios will be scrutinized by the FTC; Amazon has asked the new FTC Chair Lina KHAN to recuse herself from the case due to her prior public criticism of Amazon.
Pg 24: European DIVIDENDS are rebounding sharply, according to the managers of income-builder JOBIX (global) and JNBAX. During the pandemic, the European dividends were also cut sharply.
Pg 25: On dissection, the “good” JOBS report had issues: Most of the overshoot was from government (not corporate) hiring; labor-participation rate was flat at 61.6% (it fell sharply, then rebounded some and is flat now); wage inflation was understated due to many low-wage jobs in leisure, hospitality, retail. Jobs picture won’t be clear until FALL as by then, all federal unemployment benefits would have ended on September 6, kids would be back to school and the Covid-19 issues would be more clear. Also watch for any announcements from FED’s annual Jackson Hole conference. There are lots of uncertainties ahead.
Pg 26. OTHER VOICES. Larry HATHEWAY and Alex FRIEDMAN, Jackson Hole Economics and, formerly, UBS. Congress approved the Declaration of INDEPENDENCE on July 4, 1776. It was an ASPIRATIONAL document, as were the Constitution and Bill of Rights. Progress hasn’t been easy or linear, been messy at times, but American accomplishments (economic, political, military, science/technology/engineering) have been remarkable. Rather than brood over past issues and failings, Americans are known to tackle the issues of the present and future. Some lament the decline of the US power but a global alternative hasn’t emerged. There are challenges ahead: Climate, diversity, inequality, geopolitical, and those will be addressed.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
INDEXING CURSE? After joining SP500 in December, Tesla/TSLA is down -10%, while the REIT AIV that it replaced is up +60%; this may be changing since June 21. Over the past 2 decades, stocks added to SP500 outperformed those booted out from the announce-dates to the join-dates, but then, the added names underperformed for 12 months after the join-dates. So, lot of the runup in the added stocks was driven by news ahead of their join-dates.
REVIEW. A busy week for IPOs with 19 that included Chinese DIDI, DDL, CPOP and others (DNUT, etc).
PREVIEW. Plug Power (PLUG; fwd P/S 18) is a play on HYDROGEN fuel cells. It plans to move beyond the current forklift applications to heavy-duty trucks.
DATA THIS WEEK. ISM services PMI on TUESDAY; JOLTS report (9.3 million job openings), mortgage applications on WEDNESDAY; consumer credit, weekly initial jobless claims on THURSDAY; wholesale inventories on FRIDAY.
CLOSED. US on Monday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Johnson Controls (JCI; debt/EBITDA 2.9 (bit high); 60% revenue from HVAC products for smart-buildings, 40% from fire and security products; return-to-office (RTO) will boost demand for its products; energy efficiency also leads to reduction in carbon footprint; partnership with MSFT to develop related cloud-based systems; pg 11);
NCR (fwd P/E 17; makes point-of-sale systems (cash registers, checkout and self-checkout terminals), ATMs, ITMs; switching to more subscription-based model; hurt badly by pandemic but good post-pandemic rebound prospects; recently acquired Cardtronics (largest nonbank ATM operator); pg 12);
UK-based small-cap Genius Sports (GENI; P/S 13-20; public via SPAC merger; business is to provide game data to bookmakers and leagues (NFL, English & Scottish soccer leagues); legalized online sports betting is growing rapidly; pg 13);
European airlines (ICAGY, RYAAY, WZZZY; struggling AFLYY, DLAKY, NWARF; pg 19);
Porsche Automobil Holding (POAHY; fwd P/E 7; multiclass share structure; brands include VW, Audi, Porsche, Bently, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bugatti; EV push; pg 20).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 10: FOLLOWUP. A temporary victory for Facebook/FB as a federal court rejected lawsuits from the FTC and states that were related to antitrust and past acquisitions (but the FTC may refile). FB then went on attack by asking that the new FTC Chair Lina KHAN recuse herself from future FB cases citing her published writings. Unfortunately, more actions against Big Techs (including FB) are coming from the FTC, states and Congress (and that will trump the jurisdiction issues). The next FTC target is Amazon/AMZN’s acquisition of MGM Studios – the likely argument will be that AMZN is just too big now although there aren’t overlapping lines of businesses, but that may be a weak argument for the court (the US banks now shy away from M&A for this fear although they are not the biggest globally).
Pg 22: TECH TRADER. On Monday, July 5, Jeff BEZOS will hand over the CEO role to Andy JASSY (its AWS head); Bezos will remain Amazon/AMZN Chairman. Amazon’s bid for MGM Studios will be scrutinized by the FTC; Amazon has asked the new FTC Chair Lina KHAN to recuse herself from the case due to her prior public criticism of Amazon.
Pg 24: European DIVIDENDS are rebounding sharply, according to the managers of income-builder JOBIX (global) and JNBAX. During the pandemic, the European dividends were also cut sharply.
Pg 25: On dissection, the “good” JOBS report had issues: Most of the overshoot was from government (not corporate) hiring; labor-participation rate was flat at 61.6% (it fell sharply, then rebounded some and is flat now); wage inflation was understated due to many low-wage jobs in leisure, hospitality, retail. Jobs picture won’t be clear until FALL as by then, all federal unemployment benefits would have ended on September 6, kids would be back to school and the Covid-19 issues would be more clear. Also watch for any announcements from FED’s annual Jackson Hole conference. There are lots of uncertainties ahead.
Pg 26. OTHER VOICES. Larry HATHEWAY and Alex FRIEDMAN, Jackson Hole Economics and, formerly, UBS. Congress approved the Declaration of INDEPENDENCE on July 4, 1776. It was an ASPIRATIONAL document, as were the Constitution and Bill of Rights. Progress hasn’t been easy or linear, been messy at times, but American accomplishments (economic, political, military, science/technology/engineering) have been remarkable. Rather than brood over past issues and failings, Americans are known to tackle the issues of the present and future. Some lament the decline of the US power but a global alternative hasn’t emerged. There are challenges ahead: Climate, diversity, inequality, geopolitical, and those will be addressed.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
INDEXING CURSE? After joining SP500 in December, Tesla/TSLA is down -10%, while the REIT AIV that it replaced is up +60%; this may be changing since June 21. Over the past 2 decades, stocks added to SP500 outperformed those booted out from the announce-dates to the join-dates, but then, the added names underperformed for 12 months after the join-dates. So, lot of the runup in the added stocks was driven by news ahead of their join-dates.